Analyzing Democratic Backsliding in Narendra Modi’s India

India is one of the world’s most diverse and populated nations, with a revolutionary past and a promising future of endless development, growth, and prosperity. April 2024’s election will see 970 million people begin traveling to the polls to participate in the world’s largest display of democracy in human history. India’s democratic system is at the precipice of change as Prime Minister Narendra Modi looks to secure another term as India’s chief executive. India’s democracy under Modi bears all the indicators of a system transitioning from pluralistic democratic governance to an increasingly centralized, nationalist, and autocratic system. India’s democratic decline represents a global regression in democratic norms and policies through completely legal means. Under a decade of Modi rule, India has attempted to transform itself into a global power, pull India away from its secular history, and create a new, Hindu-first nation that has further divided the enormously diverse nation. In an attempt to reshape India’s global image, Modi has hastened its democratic decay by silencing opponents and critics even to the extent of plotting overseas assassinations. Modi clamped down on the free press at home and flamed sectarian tensions between the country’s majority Hindu population and minority Muslim and Christian communities. This case study will examine Indian democracy under Modi’s rise to power, the tools used to maintain that power, and analyze how symptoms of India’s democratic erosion could affect the future of the world’s largest democracy.

Background

In 1946, India established a Constituent Assembly (CA) to create a legislative framework for independence and a new democratic government in India- free from British influence. Indirectly elected by provincial legislatures composed of 278 representatives and 15 women, the CA was made up of the Indian National Congress Party which had a majority, the Muslim League, the Scheduled Caste Federation, the Indian Communist Party, and the Union Party.^[1] CA deliberation and negotiation led to the founding of India’s constitution and the establishment of its parliament. Their constitution remains the country’s core founding document of its contemporary system, one of the most frequently amended constitutions in the world. Modeled after the British Westminster system, India’s bicameral-parliamentary system was fully implemented in 1950 following 90 years of British colonization and occupation.^[2]

India’s executive was initially dominated by the Indian National Congress Party led by lawyer and independence leader Mahatma Gandhi. The National Congress Party would go on to dominate India’s political landscape for forty years, managing India’s vast religious and ethnic communities while opening its economy to international investment and trade. One of the party’s most critical coalition partners was the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). The BJP represented a more extreme Hindu agenda as opposed to the secular and pluralistic political environment. Since the 1990s, the BJP party has been historically antagonistic to India’s vast Muslim population, and in the 1990s, concerned the more secular Hindu parliamentarians for their support for militant groups and aims to establish a Hindu state.^[3]

Timeline of Backsliding

There have been two periods of democratic backsliding in India, the first being a historical period occurring throughout the mid-1970s, and a contemporary period beginning with the election of Modi in 2014 to the present day. From the start of the post-colonial democratic governance of India, certain leaders have attempted to move the nation towards autocratic governance and centralized political power. Indira Gandhi, a close associate of Mahatma, attempted to concentrate the power of the prime minister’s office in the 1970s to much resistance. By 1975, she had declared a state of emergency and became a wave of arresting political opponents and journalists. Gandhi also passed three constitutional amendments that centralized the power of the Supreme Court, while her government’s rampant intervention in judicial nominations eliminated judicial independence.^[4] Two years later, she would be defeated by a coalition and India’s first non-Indian National Congress Party government.^[5] The end of the 20th century saw India’s political power vested in 25 years of coalition governments of parties representing the many regional variations, religions, and languages.

Contemporary democratic backsliding began in 2014 when Prime Minister Manmohan Singh was replaced by Narendra Modi in a landslide victory. In the lead-up to the election, Singh’s government was portrayed as a favor of elite interest and detached from the realities of India’s middle class. His replacement would come to represent a movement for a new global image of India. Modi was Chief Minister of Gujarat from 2001 to his election as prime minister, cultivating an image of an effective legislator who helped revive his state’s economy. As chief minister, Modi brought in foreign investment to fund projects in road construction and electricity to rural villages.^[6] He also became known for his nationalist beliefs stemming from the Gujarat riots in 2002 when violence swept across the state. Modi quickly blamed Islamic terrorists for a fire on a train of Hindu pilgrims, even though the cause of the tragedy was never determined. Today’s Modi’s agenda is referred to as “New India” as he attempts to recreate the international image of the second most populated country.

Freedom House, the gold standard in international democratic evaluation and ranking, first dropped India’s democracy score in 2021 when it categorized India as ‘Partly Free’ from ‘Free’ (the only other category is Not Free). Freedom House found India’s democratic regression and Partly Free categorization halved the share of the global population living in a Free country, a concerning indicator for the future of India’s democratic sustainability.^[7] In 2024, Freedom House again decreased India’s scores, ranking India a democracy 66 out of 100, a sharp decrease from its 77 scores in 2017 when Freedom House adopted its ‘out of 100’ scoring methodology.

Freedom House is not the only democratic-ranking institution that has noticed Modi and the BJP’s attempts to centralize political power at the expense of India’s democratic institutions. The Economist Intelligence Unit downgraded India’s categorization to “flawed democracy” on its scale of full democracy, flawed democracy, hybrid regime, and authoritarian regime. The International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance (International IDEA), an intergovernmental organization with an explicit mandate to support sustainable democracy worldwide, ranked India 66th in its global democratic rankings, scoring better than Senegal and Mexico, and worse than Indonesia and Namibia. Using Freedom House as a metric, contemporary Indian democratic backsliding can be traced to Modi’s ascension in politics following his 2014 victory, and until he and the BJP party are removed from power, it is unclear if there is a strong enough opposition to restore democratic stability, free press, and religious equality.

India’s democratic decline did not occur through an illegal intervention or military coup but has occurred through legal means. Democratic regression has not been an overnight achievement, but it has been accelerated by Modi’s centralization of power, judicial harassment of critics, and increasing intimidation of opposition over ten years. Modi’s 2014 election victory is the greatest indicator of democratic backsliding and cannot be explained without important political, economic, and religious context. Modi has benefited immensely from a contemporary population explosion across India that has benefited from a swath of liberalizing economic reform efforts in the early 1990s. Modi’s 2014 electoral victory was the first election where individuals born after 1991 and the large-scale liberalization of the Indian economy could vote.^[8] Today, the 2024 election may solidify Modi’s long-term autocratic control of the federal government and further erode the nation’s democratic system. Election results will not be tabulated before June 1. Yet, India’s Modi and his BJP are expected to win an unprecedented third term.

Indicators of Backsliding

The most consistent element of India’s democratic backsliding under Modi is an increase in anti-Muslim and pro-Hindu rhetoric. India is a deeply religious country, but its constitution outlines its democracy as a secular system that forbids the persecution of individuals for their religious beliefs. This historic tradition is one of the first facets of India’s democracy that Modi and the BJP are actively threatening. In 2019, Modi suspended Article 370 of India’s constitution, revoking Kashmir’s autonomous status, and flooding the region with federal troops.^[9] Modi’s government changed Kashmir’s residency laws for the first time since 1947 to attempt to claim India’s only Muslim-majority state for Hindu settlers. India’s reclaiming of Kashmir instantly increased geopolitical tensions while being a defining moment for Modi and Hindu nationalism. The decision unraveled half of a century of careful diplomacy after the states of Jammu and Kashmir were reconstituted under the direct control of India’s government. Control of Kashmir has further divided the region and escalated tension between India, Pakistan, and China. Dexter Filkins writes that Kashmir is one of Modi’s most prominent victories in recreating India’s story. A story of “a secular democracy accommodating a uniquely diverse population” to a story of an intolerable Hindu nation that limits free speech, and expression while repressing the over two hundred million Muslims that live there.^[10]

Symptoms of Democratic Decay

Democratic backsliding in India over the ten years of Modi’s rule is manifested by the centralization of state institutions and by the frequency and extent Modi and the BJP are willing to go to silence and eliminate their opponents. Since Modi became prime minister, he and his party have effectively expanded their power by limiting free speech, expanding the Indian state, and silencing opponents of the regime- even through international assassination plots. Reporters Sans Frontières (RSF, Reporters Without Borders), analyzes and ranks the global status of journalism and the protection of free speech. RSF ranked India 161st in its annual press freedom index due to the Modi government’s dominating the media landscape.

In March 2023, Modi’s government pushed to expel Rahul Gandhi, opposition leader and the great-grandson of India’s first prime minister Mahatma Gandhi, from parliament and sentenced him to two years in prison for merely mocking Modi’s name in a speech.^[11] Gandhi’s expulsion and arrest are the highest profile enforcement of the government’s defamation law that has increasingly been used to silence opposition to Modi and the BJP. The rights of political and religious minorities have also come under threat during Modi’s tenure. Political and human rights activists from India’s Dalit, Muslim, and Adivasi communities have been arrested under anti-terrorism and sedition laws and are often charged without trial, bail, or an appeal process. BJP leaders have given speeches praising Nazism and targeted Muslims and their property under the pretext of municipal government while standing by as mobs lynch people for eating beef in a country that is over 80% non-vegetarian.^[12] In February 2021, BJP party officials celebrated one of the founding figures of Hindu nationalism, M.S. Golwalkar, a leader of the right-wing RSS party and admirer of Adolf Hitler. Golwalkar’s celebration amongst Hindu political leaders is a stark warning for the future of mainstream politics in India, as the BJP continues to praise the far-right figure while enacting policies that standardize Hindu practices throughout the religious and ethnically diverse nation.

The most high-profile case of the darker side of democratic decay in Modi’s government came in 2023 when US intelligence officials revealed India’s spy agency, the Research and Analysis Wing, or RAW, attempted to assassinate Sikh activist Gurpatwant Singh Pannun on US soil.^[13] Pannum is a dual US-Canadian citizen who is a prominent advocate for a global Khalistan referendum voting campaign to create a Sikh state in India, a movement that has been banned in India since 2019.  The Indian government attempted to pay $100,000 for the death of Pannum but was foiled by undercover intelligence agents. Indian officials have not indicated that they will cooperate with investigations into the plot and have argued that the state has the right to go after individuals it deems to be terrorists. The exposure of the plot has increased Modi’s political persona at home. Since 2022, there have been ten Sikh activists in the US and Canada who have been advised to take safety precautions due to threats of a similar murder plot.

Resistance to Modi

The greatest political threat to Modi securing a third term in office is from the Southern states like Tamil Nadu, India’s second-wealthiest state.^[14] Leaders in Tamil Nadu have protested Modi’s government for receiving fewer government subsidies compared to less productive states in the North, Modi, and the BJP’s stronghold, and for the targeting of political opponents. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, two Northern states earn greater tax revenue compared to the economically productive South, while the South also has received less natural disaster support. The formal parliamentary opposition to the BJP party is the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) led by Mallikarjun Kharge, a lawyer and career public servant.^[15] Outside of the INDIA movement, there is little organized opposition to the BJP’s rule, while the party’s arresting of prominent Indian political leaders has had an intimidating effect on India’s civil society.

Analysis

India’s democratic backsliding during the ten years of Narendra Modi is a critical concern for the long-term health of its state institutions and regional stability. While Modi’s use of state resources to centralize power and clamp down on critics, India also suffers from serious economic stagnation. Over ten years, unemployment is at a record high, wages have dropped 21%, and 75% of the population cannot afford one healthy meal per day.^[16] Modi and the BJP will not slow down the autocratization of India, especially if Modi secures a third term in office. International organizations should continue to push for democratic transparency and accountability, especially for human rights violations.

The Biden administration entered office and established human rights to be the driving force of its foreign policy decision-making but has quickly changed course as the war in Ukraine continues, and the war in Israel is expanding to the region. With tensions with China reaching all-time highs, it is unclear whether the administration will prioritize holding Modi and BJP officials accountable for anti-democratic policies and crackdowns on civil society. Western governments have been incapable of reducing anti-Muslim rhetoric in hopes that the country continues to align with Western corporations and interest’s vis a vis China. The greatest step the Biden administration can take is stopping the normalization of Modi’s tactics and promoting and supporting opposition parties and grassroots movements while pushing Modi’s government to decentralize India’s media environment. Additionally, governments can target India’s intelligence services like RAW with sanctions and international designates, making it harder for it to plan assassinations and meddle in the affairs of other countries.

Conclusion

Democracies undergo more frequent changes than autocratic systems. While attractive in the short term, Modi’s rise to and centralization of state power has attracted an energetic and nationalist voter bloc. However, his continued state capture is brittle to the long-term stability of India’s economic and political future. India’s history uniquely lends itself to political and democratic rebirth, and stopping Modi’s expansion of the state is possible, but it will take political will. That political will remains to be seen by the majority of the world that has looked the other way as Modi has repressed significant portions of India’s population and has grown so emboldened that his intelligence agencies are plotting to assassinate citizens for speaking against him. Modi is an opportunistic leader who has seized the levers of power in the largest democracy. In doing so, he has eroded India’s democracy to levels not seen in fifty years. Similar to the democratic consolidation in the 1970s, the end of Modi and the BJP’s dominance must come from organized opposition, and a coordinated effort amongst diverging opponents to root out the institutional democratic decline.

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^[1] International IDEA, “Constitutional History of India.,” March 4, 1970. https://constitutionnet.org/country/india.

^[2]  Price, Gareth. “Democracy in India.” Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/04/democracy-india.

^[3] Frankel, Francine R. “India’s Democracy in Transition.” World Policy Journal 7, no. 3 (1990): 521–55. http://www.jstor.org/stable/40209159.

^[4] Andhyarujina, T.R., ‘A Committed Judiciary: Indira Gandhi and Judicial Appointments’, in Arghya Sengupta, and Ritwika Sharma (eds), Appointment of Judges to the Supreme Court of India: Transparency, Accountability, and Independence (Delhi, 2018; online edn, Oxford Academic, 22 Aug. 2019)

^[5] Price, Gareth. “Democracy in India.” Chatham House – International Affairs Think Tank. https://www.chathamhouse.org/2022/04/democracy-india.

^[6] Filkins, Dexter. “Blood and Soil in Narendra Modi’s India.”https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2019/12/09/blood-and-soil-in-narendra-modis-india.

^[7] Freedom House, Freedom in the World 2022, https://freedomhouse.org/sites/default/files/2022-02/FIW_2022_PDF_Booklet_Digital_Final_Web.pdf.

^[8] Malik, Ashok. “The India That Made Modi.” Edited by François Godement. WHAT DOES INDIA THINK? European Council on Foreign Relations, 2015. http://www.jstor.org/stable/resrep21664.9.

^[9] Filkins, Dexter. “Blood and Soil in Narendra Modi’s India.”

^[10] Filkins, Dexter. “Blood and Soil in Narendra Modi’s India.” The New Yorker, December 2, 2019.

^[11]  Sharma, Ashok, and Sheikh Saaliq. “India Expels Rahul Gandhi, Modi Critic, from Parliament.” AP News, March 27, 2023. https://apnews.com/article/india-rahul-gandhi-guilty-parliament-modi-1c87edf95780e5e937d99b886aa3710d.

^[12] Lateef, Samaan. “Why Is India’s Government Celebrating an Antisemitic, pro-Genocide Hitler Devotee?” Haaretz.com, March 1, 2021. https://www.haaretz.com/world-news/2021-03-01/ty-article-opinion/.premium/why-is-indias-government-celebrating-an-antisemitic-pro-genocide-hitler-devotee/0000017f-e108-d804-ad7f-f1fa46980000.

^[13] Pandey, Geeta. “Gurpatwant Singh Pannun: The Sikh Separatist at the Centre of US Murder Plot Allegation.” BBC News, December 21, 2023. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-67725254.

^[14] Arasu, Sibi, and Krutika Pathi. “Why Voters in Southern India Are More Resistant to Modi’s Hindu-Centric Politics.” AP News, https://apnews.com/article/india-election-modi-south-chennai-cb283460d1066a0e874da7334ffd880e.

^[15] “Know about the New Congress President.” Indian National Congress. https://inc.in/congress-sandesh/others/know-about-the-new-congress-president.

^[16] Basu, Moni. “This Is What It Means to Be Poor in India Today.” CNN. https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2017/10/world/i-on-india-income-gap/.