On January 14, 2026, Tunisia celebrated 15 years since it ousted authoritarian leader Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. The Jasmine Revolution, named after the country’s national flower, was the catalyst for a series of uprisings throughout the Arab world in pursuit of a democratic future. The subsequent constitution enacted in 2014 served as the blueprint for neighboring countries looking to establish a strong legal framework. Namely, the document emphasized Tunisia’s desire for free elections, an equitable balance of power between the branches of government, and equal rights for all its citizens. Come 2022, Tunisia ousted another key player in their government. However, this time it wasn’t the president, it was their not even a decade-old constitution. 

Tunisia hit a turning point in 2019 after Kais Saied, a professor of constitutional law, won the presidential election in a landslide with a platform based on furthering the changes brought about by The Jasmine Revolution. Instead, he began to reverse the progress he promised to further. Following the Covid-19 pandemic, in 2021 Saied dismissed the Prime Minister Hichem Mechichi and suspended parliament. The president justified this decision by blaming Tunisia’s economic strife on misgovernance and corruption within its leaders. In paralyzing decision-making for both the judicial and legislative branch, Saied started down a dangerous path of executive aggrandizement. Rid of a prime minister and parliament to mitigate him, the president was free to use federal institutions to punish those who opposed him. For instance, Saied ordered over 70 Tunisians, including a group of judges who publicly opposed him, to house arrest without consulting The Supreme Judicial Council or considering appeals to the sentences. By using legal channels to minimize the voices speaking against him, the president ensured that his authority reigned supreme over any other decision-maker. 

Perhaps the most dangerous part of Saied’s subsequent actions was his ongoing campaign of “Stealth Authoritarianism.” That is, the president still operates under the guise of maintaining democracy by using rhetoric that’s associated with a democratic system of government. In his 2026 New Year’s address to the people of Tunisia, Saied affirms that the country will “continue along the same path… in order to respond to the legitimate demands of the people to fulfil their hopes and expectations for employment, freedom, and national dignity.” First, by alluding to the democratic “path” originally promised by Saied’s campaign, the president is reminding citizens that Tunisia came from an authoritarian regime. The underlying message in this statement is that without Saied, the nation wouldn’t be on the path at all, but rather still at its authoritarian origin. Second, the president is intentionally using wording that’s often associated with democracy. Referencing “the legitimate demands of the people”, for example, implies that the government takes input from citizens when creating policy. The notion that power is vested in the people is the pinnacle of a democratic government. Similarly, Saied is deliberately promising Tunisian citizens general “freedom”, something that they were unable to exercise to the same extent under Ben Ali. 

With the president’s strong democratic rhetoric and pro-freedom platform, how can it be that Tunisia has really begun the process of democratic erosion? Three main factors point to the nation’s backslide into pre-2011 authoritarianism. To begin, in another display of executive aggrandizement, Saied has promoted high-ranking military officials to ministries for the first time in the country’s history. Under the 2014 constitution, this decision wouldn’t necessarily increase the power of the president because the military was under control of the prime minister. However, according to Saied’s constitutional reform of 2022, the president is considered the supreme head of the armed forces. Thus, Saied has successfully siphoned more force to the executive branch by increasing the influence of military officers who respond directly to him. Not to mention, with the promotion of officers to ministries, the military has a greater incentive to protect and respond to Saied than they ever had with Ben Ali. 

Secondarily, Saied has successfully eliminated the influence of contenders who could oppose his presidency. A Tunisian court ordered forty people, including businessmen, lawyers, and leaders attempting to overthrow the president between five and 45-year jail terms. These sentences ensure that Saied is exempt from political competition, a factor that’s essential for a truly democratic system. Without another political party or leader in place to check and challenge Saied’s authority, the president can operate radically without the fear of being replaced by an opposing leader. 

Lastly, Tunisia’s democratic credibility has dramatically diminished to the rest of the world in the last 10 years. In fact, according to Freedom House, the nation has declined more than any other in their conditions for political rights and civil liberties. When respected international sources such as Freedom House flag Tunisia’s democratic decline, western nations notice. Unlike during the Jasmine Revolution, because Tunisia has already attempted to democratize and failed, it will receive less financial support from other nations. If investing countries can’t count on the fact that their aid will make a lasting impact on the nation’s legal infrastructure, they’ll stop providing foreign aid with the same fervor. While this could lead to Tunisia taking more accountability for their own development, it also reduces the direct influence of democratic actors. 

Tunisia’s role as the catalyst for Arab Spring didn’t go unnoticed in the global community. Now, their democratic backsliding won’t be ignored either. The nation’s relationship with democracy was tenuous from the start, with the 2014 constitution taking three years to come to fruition. After Saied’s reformation of the constitution in 2022 that shifted the government from semi-presidential to hyper-presidential, Tunisia continued to spiral into authoritarianism. Now, with a more politicized military, no competition, and a lack of international faith, Tunisian democracy has begun its path of erosion.