In March 2026, Italy saw the first major defeat of their current far right government. A referendum that would’ve allowed the incumbent to further control and reform the judicial system was not passed. Before understanding the significance of this vote, we must understand the government that Italy has been under since 2022.
In 2022, Italy saw the introduction of its first far-right government since World War 2 with the election of Giorgia Meloni as Prime Minister. Her party, Fratelli d’Italia, has neofascist roots and is a proponent of Euroskepticism. In her early years as a teen, Meloni outwardly praised former fascist Italian Prime Minister Benito Mussolini. Meloni’s views are positively populist, aligning with Jan-Werner Müller’s depiction of populism. Jan-Werner Müller describes a populist as anti-elite and anti-pluralist. They reject elite figures who they believe don’t truly represent the “will of the people”. As anti-pluralist, the populist denies the legitimacy of all opposition candidates because only the populist can represent the people therefore viewing the opposition as illegitimate. The combination of these is closely related and crucial to be possessed by a true populist. Meloni values Italian nationalism and prioritizing national policies and views before those of the various elites in the European Union. She is also a strong supporter of anti-immigration policy and traditional family structures (anti-LGBT) based on Christian faith. Meloni’s frequently used slogan “Italy and Italians first” further emphasizes her desire to institute her idea of Italy onto the country and to see anybody who goes against her ideals as a threat. She embodies the us versus them mentality, that anybody who does not match her view of what the people want is definitively wrong and illegitimate.
As an explicitly far-right politician following previous centrist prime minister Mario Draghi, Giorgia Meloni marked a clear shift to the right in Italy. In order to boost Fratelli d’Italia’s chances in the election, Meloni broke her focus on only Italy and publicly supported Ukraine and downplayed claims about the party’s explicitly neofascist roots and ideals. This key tactic of populists to manipulate their words and control their own media helped to garner support. Jan-Werner Müller discusses how populists want to diminish/control intermediary sources of information so they are the sole provider. Since the beginning of her term Meloni has veered a little bit away from her populist campaign objectives in order to maintain western relationships and make more effective pragmatic choices. She still continues to prioritize controlling immigration and enforce her traditional family values.
Ozan Varol’s concept of Stealth Authoritarianism outlines certain tactics that political leaders take to bolster their power through legal means as a way to move closer to an authoritarian ruler. A key tactic is judicial review – consolidating power that agrees with the incumbent in the judiciary. This allows a higher chance of the judiciary supporting the leader without it seeming corrupt. The March 22-23rd referendum in question would’ve “inscribed a firm separation between judges and prosecutors into the constitution” with “distinct bodies to govern them and a new disciplinary court.” While the government argued that this would bolster independence in the judiciary, the opposition highlighted how it would damage the current balance of powers in the constitution and would increase the influence of politics in the courts. It is noted that many Italian voters were not in full understanding of the details of the referendum which could’ve been a communication failure by Meloni’s government. This could’ve been intentional to get voters to more blindly agree with Meloni’s side, but did not end up working against the opposition’s influence. This win for the opposition’s views is extremely important because it is the first loss of Fratelli d’Italia on a key policy, and if not lost could’ve motivated Meloni to pursue further aggrandizement like the introduction of direct elections for prime minister that could keep her in power longer.
Released on March 17th, only a few days before the referendum, the 2026 V-Dem report categorized Italy as a near-miss to autocratization. This means that it is at least halfway towards becoming an autocracy and will be watched closely in the coming years as an emerging autocracy. However, as Giorgia Meloni and her party have now had their first major defeat, the possibility of Italy moving away from a far-right government is emerging. While it is only one step and nothing is guaranteed, this event demonstrates a spark of hope for a future moving slowly left as well as an exposure of Meloni’s vulnerability. Meloni did respect the election results and didn’t try to invalidate them, which is something that populists may attempt. She cannot continue to expect voters to listen to her opinions only without consideration of the opposition, even if she herself thinks the opposition is illegitimate. Democratic candidates like Elly Schlein recognize this event as a hint of an alternative government to continuing Meloni’s administration. This is especially important as Italy will hold their next election in 2027.
https://www.v-dem.net/documents/75/V-Dem_Institute_Democracy_Report_2026_lowres.pdf
https://www.britannica.com/biography/Giorgia-Meloni
https://psi424.cankaya.edu.tr/uploads/files/M%C3%BCller%2C%20What%20Is%20Populism%20%282017%20–%20Penguin%20Books%29.pdf (Jan-Werner Müller What is Populism?)
chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/file:///Users/EmmaMiller/Downloads/Varol%202015%20[pp%201676-1718].pdf (Ozan Varol Stealth Authoritarianism)
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