Control Over Media Narratives and Global Support for Ukraine

The Russian Ukrainian Conflict is a prime example of the modern decline in democracy globally, though not in the ways one might expect. Through this conflict, we see the power struggle of the media and the struggle of leaders to control the narrative of conflicts and the status of the countries involved in these conflicts.

The outcome of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict hinges on the involvement of other global powers, particularly powers that support Ukraine. Without resources provided by countries in the European Union as well as the United States, Ukraine faces an uphill battle in this conflict, beginning with the battle for global support. Putin may control one of the largest military forces in the world, but he also controls the current narrative surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict.

The Media in Russia

Since the 2010s, Russia has consistently shifted from a more liberal ideology surrounding the press to gradually enacting more restrictions about what is published within the country. According to the World Press Freedom Index, Russia ranks 162 out of 180 countries in freedom of the press. Censorship and propaganda run rampant in Russia, including in the media surrounding the war between Russia and Ukraine. This means that the government essentially has complete control over what narratives are reported for the majority of news in Russia, and this includes news on the Russian-Ukrainian war. Globally, this has had an impact about news about Russia in global media, including the strength of Russia in the Russian-Ukrainian war.

As of right now, Russia controls much of the narrative surrounding the war, portraying the fight Ukraine is facing as futile. Much of the narrative portrays Russia as an indomitable superpower, and the Ukrainian forces as weak and ready to buckle.

The Reality of Ukraine From a Global Perspective

In reality, we know that Ukraine has a higher chance of success than the media is portraying. The control that Putin has exercised over the situation exemplifies that lack of freedom of expression in Russia, as well as a decline in the power over the press of Ukraine can have an impact on the global perception of the conflict, and this perception in turn impacts the willingness of countries to back Ukraine.

Ukraine has struggled to receive necessary support from the European Union, especially in the wake of the conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States. The United States is likely to divert resources from Ukraine to Iran should the conflict escalate, particularly under the leadership of Donald Trump.

The diversion of resources from Ukraine could have an influence on other Western leaders continuing or increasing support for Ukraine. European officials including Gitanas Nauseda, president of Lithuania, have expressed concern over whether the conflict in Iran will lead to a diversion of focus and energy from Ukraine. Though leaders have spoken in support of Ukraine this year, it is difficult to predict how the conflict in Iran will effect this sentiment, as we enter an era of seemingly endless political violence.

Putin’s goal in meeting with global leaders such as the United States is to ensure that this conflict ends on the terms of Russia. He wants to reiterate the idea that there is no other plausible outcome for the conflict to end.

We can see this rhetoric being effective with the United States with the shift from a call for immediate ceasefire in Ukraine to pressuring Ukraine to surrender lands to Russia because they have no chance of winning anyways. This shift came (shockingly) after a meeting with Putin in Russia.

Why Does This Matter?

The narratives pushing the inevitable defeat of Ukraine include the front lines being on the brink of collapse and the reserves being much shallower than Russia’s, meaning that Ukraine will not be able to sustain full-blown war for as long as Russia – Russia can wait them out and win in the end.

These narratives drive leaders away from supporting Ukraine, as the position becomes whether or not sinking resources into the conflict will result in an overall loss at the end of the conflict, and an expansion of Russia, making Russia more powerful.

This perspective of the conflict is harmful because an expansion of Russia in the current global sphere would be a further signal of the decline of democracy globally. It is also, in general, exaggerated or simply false. Although Russia does have a large number of troops and other resources, these resources are not inexhaustible, and should not be viewed as such.

Ukraine is in a desperate situation, but not as desperate as the media is portraying. Yes, Russia has made advances into Ukrainian territory, but these advances are nowhere near as large as Russia would claim. Russia’s advance has been slow, and it has only been successful at claiming 0.8 percent of Ukraine’s territory.

The propaganda coming from Russia makes the situation seem much more slanted towards Russia than it is in reality. Through this situation, we can see the immediate, huge impact of media control on democratic erosion. The media impacts how the world views conflicts and how countries should be reacting to them.