After decades of dominance, South Africa’s ruling party has lost its majority and that might be exactly what the country needs.

For nearly 30 years, the African National Congress (ANC) has dominated South African politics. In 2019, it won about 57% of the vote, but that number has now dropped to around 40%. According to an NPR report on the election results, this marks a historic turning point. The ANC can no longer govern alone and must form a coalition government to secure a majority and effectively manage national policy. Thus, in 2024, mentioning to election results in South Africa, we should focus on the number of parties in government. From 2014 to 2019, the number of parties in government was both one. It shows us the existence of  electoral dominance. Nevertheless, in 2024, it has been extremely increased and became 10. 10 parties are united and composed coalition government.

At first glance, this may seem like instability. Coalition governments are complex, countless argument were coming out, requiring compromise and often slowing decision-making. However, this moment reveals a deeper issue which is the long-term effects of single-party dominance on democracy. When one party remains in power for too long, political competition gradually weakens. Although elections still take place, their meaning begins to change as outcomes become increasingly predictable and opposition parties lose strength. Over time, political energy fades, and accountability declines. This process is often described as democratic erosion, a condition in which democratic institutions formally remain in place, but their actual functioning becomes increasingly weakened.

Referring to the data of democratic change in South Africa, before 1950, they were neither autocratic nor democratic and around 1950 to 1970, democracy goes stable. However, after 1970, they went back to square one. The loss of majority emerged in 2019, but at that time, their democracy has already been falling. “Neither autocratizing nor democratizing” refers that even if there is election and freedom, it might not be fair enough for citizens and there is political restriction, such as restriction of expression, fairness and political participation.

Accountability in a democracy operates in two main forms: vertical and horizontal. Vertical accountability refers to the ways in which citizens control the government through elections, public opinion, and civic participation. Government legitimacy derives from the consent of the governed, expressed most directly through elections, but also reinforced through active engagement such as protests, public debate, and the continuous evaluation of political performance. Horizontal accountability, by contrast, refers to the system of checks and balances among the executive, legislative, and judicial branches. By enabling these institutions to monitor and constrain one another, horizontal accountability helps prevent the abuse of power and maintain democratic stability. In South Africa, both forms of accountability have weakened over time. Although citizens have historically participated actively in politics, continued dissatisfaction, particularly with the lack of improvement in welfare and living conditions, has led to declining civic engagement. As frustration has grown, fewer citizens feel motivated to participate, weakening vertical accountability.

Referring to V-Dem, it says that among two types of accountability, horizontal accountability is difficult to figure out explicitly. It is because that if certain party dominates the power for a long period, there is high possibility to make judicial institutions as their co-opt institutions. At the same time, those situation has weakened internal checks and balances. Based on government accountability in South Africa, it has accountability, yet there is no effectiveness to implement policies and control corruption.

As a result, the government has struggled to effectively respond to citizens’ needs, and major issues, such as high unemployment, deep inequality, and frequent electricity shortages, have remained unresolved. These persistent problems have contributed to a steady decline in public trust, reflecting the erosion of horizontal accountability as well. This is why the current moment matters. The ANC’s loss of its majority is not simply the result of a single election. It represents the breakdown of a long-standing pattern in which one party consistently dominated politics.

For the first time in decades, electoral outcomes are no longer predictable. When power is no longer guaranteed, political competition emerge again. Parties must once again persuade voters and demonstrate their ability to address national challenges. Although forming a coalition government will be difficult, requiring negotiation among parties with differing ideologies, this uncertainty is not necessarily a weakness. In fact, a certain level of uncertainty is essential to democracy. It ensures that outcomes are not predetermined and that real political change remains possible. This possibility is what keeps leaders accountable and responsive to citizens.

A system in which one party consistently wins may appear stable, but such stability comes at a cost. It weakens competition, reduces accountability, and ultimately allows democracy to erode from within. South Africa’s recent election suggests a break from this pattern. While it does not guarantee immediate improvement, it creates the conditions for a more competitive and responsive political system.

This circumstance is not unique to South Africa. According to International IDEA, they have high level dialogue on democracy with South Africa. The risks of long-term rule and democratic erosion can be observed in many democracies around the world. Democracy is not simply about holding elections; it must enable genuine political change and foster meaningful interaction between citizens and political actors.

Democracy does not fail in a single moment and it is not always a bad signal. Sometimes, losing power is exactly what a democracy needs. It can open space for renewed competition between parties, stronger accountability in government, and democratic recovery.