May 5, 2026

The New Nepal: A Model or An Outlier?

By: Bobby Costello

 

 

Recent uprisings in Nepal, Bangladesh, and Madagascar (just to name a few) have

highlighted younger generations’ demands for anticorruption and better political

representation. Specifically, the 2025 uprising in Nepal illustrates GenZ’s potential for

political action. Organized primarily through the platform Discord, the protest was

initially and largely nonviolent, though it eventually turned more confrontational and led

to the burning of several buildings including the Supreme Court and Parliament. The

Nepalese Government responded with force, with over 70protesters shot. Against the

odds, the movement was successful in installing a trusted anti-corruption government

official, Shushila Karki, as interim Prime Minister, and in calling for free and fair

elections.

In Nepal, until recently, a vast majority of leadership was over the age of 70, while 40%

of citizens are under the age of 35. Young citizens were hungry for generational

change. Balendra Shah, a 36-year-old rapper and former mayor of Nepal’s largest city

Kathmandu has become a symbol of that change by becoming the new prime minister.

He ran against the previous prime minister in his own district and won in a landslide,

while his party almost gained a supermajority in the lower house of Parliament.

Why were the protests successful? Notably, participation passed the 3.5% threshold

identified by Chenoweth and Stephan (2012) as critical for a movement’s success.

Chenoweth (2020) found that no government has been able to survive when at least

3.5% of the population is involved in active resistance.

Still, what happened in Nepal is relatively unique. For example, Madagascar also

experienced a large Gen Z movement and the burning of government buildings in 2025.

However, one massive difference is that protesters in Madagascar accepted assistance

from a military entity, the elite CAPSAT unit. What ensued was a hybrid between a coup

and a revolution, where the unit realized they could take power instead of giving it to the

people. The outcome is a more repressive regime being installed.

Nepal’s revolution illustrates what happens when large numbers of young people

mobilize. It also shows how much noise the collective can make even when the people

in power have all the microphones. The combination of non-violence and a commitment

to having fair elections and pragmatic leadership is what cemented the uprising and its

aftermath as potential model of resistance to autocratization.

Nepal is now at a crossroads. Prime Minister Balen Shah has promised to implement

much-needed anti-corruption reforms, as well as policies to improve people’s lives and

restore their civil rights. He is also pushing for demographic changes in parliament,

leaving the rest of the world’s incumbent elected officials shocked. Currently rated aspartly free by Freedom House, will Nepal defy the ongoing global trend of democratic

backsliding?

Chenoweth, Erica. 2020. “Questions, Answers and Some Cautionary Updates

Regarding the 3.5% Rule.” Carr Center for Human Rights Policy. Harvard University

Chenoweth, M. J. Stephan. 2012. Why Civil Resistance Works: The Strategic Logic of

Nonviolent Conflict. New York: Columbia University Press. Chapter 1.

World Health Organization, Data Portal: Nepal.

https://data.who.int/countries/524

Beech, Hannah. 2025. “How a Gen Z Revolution Spiraled out of Control.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/08/world/asia/nepal-gen-z-revolution.html

Beech, Hannah. 2025. “He Raps, He Rants, He Promises Change. Meet Nepal’s

Presumptive New Leader.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/09/world/asia/balendra-shah-nepal-prime-

minister.html

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