In “’Conventional’ and ‘Virtual’ Civil Societies in Autocratic Regimes” Mark Beissinger argues that protests that mobilize people mainly via social media tend to have trouble generating a common identity. This weakens the protest movement. In this blog I argue that the weaknesses of virtually organized protest movements apply to Hong Kong. I also argue that these issues are likely to prevent the people of Hong Kong from winning the concessions they are protesting for in current extradition bill protests and in future protests against the Chinese government.

In 2018 a couple from Hong Kong flew to Taiwan.² While there, the man murdered his pregnant girlfriend then flew back home to Hong Kong. Taiwan wanted to prosecute the man, but they did not have an extradition agreement with Hong Kong. To fix that, the government of Hong Kong proposed an amendment that would allow extradition to Taiwan and several other states, including China. Given Hong Kong and China’s turbulent history, many feared this could have led to human rights abuses. That is because in the decolonization agreement between Britain, China, and Hong Kong the British granted Hong Kong 50 years of autonomy before it was to be returned to China as a Chinese territory. During this period of autonomy, Hong Kong has adopted democratic social reforms such as freedom of speech. Because China is a communist country with a history of harsh dictators who torture and kill political dissidents, Hong Kongers fear their return to China will severely curtail their rights and freedoms. The 2019 extradition bill would have made it even easier to abuse Hong Kongers who oppose Chinese rule. As a result, the people protested.

The greatest strength of the current Hong Kong protests is also its greatest weakness: it is leaderless. Previous social movements, such as the 2014 Umbrella Movement, featured outspoken leaders. These individuals faced violent attacks and harassment from the opposing side and were repeatedly arrested by the government for years, even after the movement died down.³ Striving to learn from these mistakes, the 2019 protests are leaderless. This has helped sustain the movement in many ways. For example, arresting people will not stop the movement. Usually if the government arrests the leaders, the protests slow down. Without a leader, anyone can initiate a protest online. This has enabled the movement to continuously hold protests for the past year, even during the coronavirus pandemic.

The lack of leadership has created solidarity issues, however. Beissinger notes that leaderless, virtually organized protests struggle to form a common identity.⁴ This makes it much harder to develop a cohesive protest strategy and to articulate the goals of the movement. The current protests originally only wanted the extradition bill withdrawn, but many protest groups wanted to expand the movement’s demands to include demands for democratic rights.⁵ Some even wanted full independence from China. To overcome their lack of solidarity, protesters used social media to survey the movement’s concerns. They noticed 5 reoccurring goals, which became their demands of the government.⁶ They included:⁷

1. Withdrawing the extradition bill (This demand has been met)
2.  Stop categorizing the protests as a “riot” because individuals imprisoned for rioting are subjected to more sever punishment
3. Amnesty for arrested protesters
4. Convene an independent inquiry into police brutality allegations
5. Grant universal suffrage

This list was where the sense of solidarity ended. According to Daniel Mattignly, author of the book The Art of Political Control in China, “The lack of a leader also means that the government has no clear group with which to negotiate.”⁸ It is unrealistic for protesters to expect to receive every demand they want; yet, that is exactly what they hope for. A popular rallying cry for protesters is “five demands, not one less.”⁹ Moreover, Thomas Friedman, a New York Times journalist, notes that whenever an individual or group of protesters advocate for making concessions, other protesters on social media verbally attack them.¹⁰ Their inability and unwillingness to compromise is a major issue.

As a result of the movement’s inability to make concessions, I do not see a way for protesters to achieve their remaining 4 goals. Additionally, if Hong Kong maintains a leaderless protest strategy mobilized via social media when their 50 year period of autonomy expires in 2047, the protester’s lack of a common identity will make it difficult to draft a consolidated list of demands. If they do overcome this issue, similar to how they overcame it with the extradition protests, the lack of a leader to negotiate with and encourage protesters to willingly make concessions will hinder their efforts to strengthen democracy.

Endnotes

1. O’Donnell-Lamb, Kate, and Jessie Pang. “Hong Kong Sees Biggest Protests since Democrats’ Election Boost.” World News. Reuters, December 8, 2019. https://www.reuters.com/article/us-hongkong-protests/hong-kong-sees-biggest-protests-since-democrats-election-boost-idUSKBN1YC00L.
2. Hong Kong Protests. Al Jazeera, January 8, 2020. https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/start-here/2019/12/hong-kong-protests-191208121847326.html.
3. Shao, Grace. “Social Media Has Become a Battleground in Hong Kong’s Protests.” Social Media. CNBC, August 16, 2019. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/16/social-media-has-become-a-battleground-in-hong-kongs-protests.html.
4. Beissinger, Mark R. “‘Conventional’ and ‘Virtual’ Civil Societies in Autocratic Regimes.” Comparative Politics 49, no. 3 (April 27AD): 365. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26330962.
5. Hong Kong Protests. Al Jazeera, January 8, 2020. https://www.aljazeera.com/programmes/start-here/2019/12/hong-kong-protests-191208121847326.html.
6. Friedman, Thomas L. “Hong Kong’s Protests Could Be Another Social Media Revolution That Ends in Failure.” The New York Times. The New York Times, September 17, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/17/opinion/hong-kong-protest.html.
7.  “The Hong Kong Protests Explained in 100 and 500 Words.” BBC News. BBC, November 28, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-49317695.
8. Mattingly, Daniel. “The Hong Kong Protests Have Been Going on for Months. What Explains This Sustained Action?” The Washington Post. Washington Post, September 30, 2019. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2019/09/30/hong-kong-protests-have-been-going-months-what-explains-this-sustained-action/.
9.  “The Hong Kong Protests Explained in 100 and 500 Words.” BBC News. BBC, November 28, 2019. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-49317695.
10. Friedman, Thomas L. “Hong Kong’s Protests Could Be Another Social Media Revolution That Ends in Failure.” The New York Times. The New York Times, September 17, 2019. https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/17/opinion/hong-kong-protest.html.