After the sharp turn that the Moreno administration took, is Ecuador finally free from Populism’s deadly grip? While it seemed that the presidency of Rafael Correa would be the end of democracy in Ecuador, the unexpected election of President Lenín Moreno signaled a shift in the tide. During his term, Moreno reversed many policies instated by his predecessor, which included reinstating the presidential term limit and reestablishing a relationship with the country’s sources of media. Despite these efforts to restore a democratic process in Ecuador, there is still a long road to traverse. The conclusion of Moreno’s presidency could open the door to new threats to Ecuador’s recovering democracy. Ecuador could regress if measures are not taken by Ecuador’s new president, Guillermo Lasso, to continue Moreno’s work.
Rafael Correa (2007-2017)
Populist leaders are often seen as one of “the people,” and they see themselves as the only vehicle for change. These elected officials are also very charismatic, which makes it easier for them to amass a large and devoted group of followers. Correa fit the definition of a populist leader perfectly. He was extremely popular amongst voters and had some of the highest public approval ratings in all of Latin America. Of course, he took this to his advantage. When the public places a high degree of trust in a particular candidate, they can overlook specific actions that said candidate takes, even if these actions would usually be regarded as red flags.
When many of these undemocratic measures are taken simultaneously, a severe problem can emerge. Kim Lane Scheppele defines this issue as the “Frankenstate.” In her piece, Scheppele uses the Prime Minister of Hungary, Viktor Orbán, as a prime example; during his administration, Orbán altered several aspects of the Hungarian government, including the constitution. Similar to Orbán, Correa also altered the constitution under his administration. For example, Correa reformed the electoral laws in Ecuador; one of the most compelling ways he did this was repealing Article 203 of Ecuador’s Constitution. This action led to several important changes, but two stuck out particularly. First, this made it legal to use state resources in order to push political propaganda during elections season. This allowed Correa to use the government’s money to promote his reelection campaign and spread propaganda. Second, the repeal also altered media coverage of the elections. These two factors converged to make it nearly impossible for any other candidate to have a successful campaign. The only candidate truly being promoted was Correa, and since he was the only one getting any attention, it follows that the public would be more likely to vote for him.
One of the most significant changes, though, revolved around term limits. Correa altogether scrapped the presidential term limit in Ecuador so that he could serve for a longer period of time. This, in combination with the electoral changes, made it so that Correa was essentially guaranteed a spot as president for as long as he desired.
Lenín Moreno (2017-2021)
In 2017, Correa’s popularity and facade were weakened due to an economic downturn and public resentment. Due to this, he opted against running for reelection and instead backed his former vice president, Moreno, in the election. Surely, Correa expected to maintain strong influence despite not being Ecuador’s sitting president, but this did not happen. To Correa and many observers’ surprise, Moreno took the presidency in an entirely different direction.
Upon his election in 2017, Moreno began taking steps to reverse the damage his predecessor had inflicted on the democratic systems within Ecuador. One of the biggest changes he established was the restoration of presidential term limits. Establishing these term limits ensured that Correa could not return to power. Moreno also reconnected with Ecuador’s private media and “promised a new era of press freedom.” These actions taken by Moreno set the country back on track to having a fair elections process. Finally, another large step taken by Moreno was the dissolution of Correa’s relationship with Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro; Moreno did not approve of authoritarianism, nor did he want Ecuador to continue on the road to an authoritarian regime, and this only made his intentions clearer.
Guillermo Lasso (2021-Present)
Unfortunately, after the completion of his first term, Lenin did not win re-election. Despite his efforts throughout his term, it was not enough to gain vast support throughout the country. In 2021, Guillermo Lasso was elected president of Ecuador. Despite being a much more conservative leader, Lasso has high approval ratings. One reason for this was the way in which he handled the COVID-19 pandemic; he organized an “extremely successful vaccination rollout, which immunized over half of the population of 17 million in 100 days”. The state of Ecuador’s economy has also added to the president’s success.
Regardless of his current success, we have yet to see if Lasso will continue Moreno’s work to restore democracy within Ecuador. It is not enough to have a leader that is pro-democracy; the damage that was done under the Correa administration is still affecting the country. Lasso must follow in Moreno’s footsteps to actively fight against democratic backsliding; he must continue the work of his predecessor in order to avoid a complete democratic breakdown in the future.
References
Cleary, M. R., & Öztürk, A. (2020). When does backsliding lead to breakdown? Uncertainty and opposition strategies in democracies at risk. Perspectives on Politics, 1-17. https://doi.org/10.1017/s1537592720003667
Hurtado, S. (2021, October 13). The Ups and Downs of Guillermo Lasso. Americas Quarterly. https://americasquarterly.org/article/the-ups-and-downs-of-guillermo-lasso/
Muller, J. (2016). What is populism? University of Pennsylvania Press.
Otis, J. (2017, October 10). Ecuador’s Moreno opens new era in relations with media. Committee to Protect Journalists. https://cpj.org/2017/10/ecuadors-moreno-opens-new-era-in-relations-with-me/
Sanchez-Sibony, O. (2017). Classifying Ecuador’s regime under Correa: A procedural approach. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 9(3), 121-140. https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802×1700900305
Sanchez-Sibony, O. (2017). Classifying Ecuador’s regime under Correa: A procedural approach. Journal of Politics in Latin America, 9(3), 121-140. https://doi.org/10.1177/1866802×1700900305
Scheppele, K. L. (2013). Not Your Father’s Authoritarianism: The Creation of the “Frankenstate”. Newsletter of the European Politics and Society Section of the American Political Science Association. https://democratic-erosion.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/03/Scheppele-2013.pdf
Stuenkel, O. (2019, July 11). Is Ecuador a model for post-populist democratic recovery? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. https://carnegieendowment.org/2019/07/11/is-ecuador-model-for-post-populist-democratic-recovery-pub-79472
I really appreciate this post and its conceptualization of the effects of populism in Ecuador. I think the structure is great, breaking down the time period by the reign of each leader helps to illustrate the short and long term effects of populism for Ecuador. The only comment I might have is that you could spend slightly more time discussing the effects of populism following the Correa administration. It would be nice to see slightly more discussion of the effects Correa’s actions had on the institutions, and perhaps levels of polarization, in Ecuador. This is discussed slightly in your section on Moreno’s administration, but the post may benefit from a more detailed discussion. Overall, great post!