By Thomas Charyton
A democracy can only really work if people believe in it. The nation’s faith in its institutions had not faced a threat quite like that which was the Trump presidency. Using several specific propaganda techniques, President Trump repeatedly attacked the press, Democratic party, and different minority groups in some subtle and not so subtle ways. He labeled them as dishonest enemies of the state, attacks which are expected from an authoritarian, populist leader (Dalio). Throughout this tumultuous time, scientists, pundits, and citizens alike wondered how these attacks would affect American institutions. The 2020 election is when much of the authoritarian propaganda was used, the biggest of which was the “big lie.” This conspiracy theory claimed that the Presidential election had been tampered with by Democrats to rig a victory for Donald Trump. It employed several racist tropes, like ballots made from bamboo set for Biden were sent in from China and many more. These propaganda tactics of making people doubt can do real damage to institutions. This ultimately culminated in the January 6th attack on our Capitol, which aimed to stop the certification of Biden’s electoral victory. This horrific event of national embarrassment displays the damage authoritarian propaganda can have on even the strongest democracies.
Looking forward, the next election will offer political scientists an insight on the strength of American democracy in its first national election since January 6th. Since the name Donald Trump will not be on any ballot and it is a midterm, there may be some effects in voter turnout. We saw some of this in the 2018 midterm, but this was before the worst of the attacks against our democracy. After he was defeated in 2020 by Joe Biden, Trump loyalists across state legislatures passed harsh voting restrictions. “As of January 14, legislators in at least 27 states have introduced, pre-filed, or carried over 250 bills with restrictive provisions, compared to 75 such bills in 24 states on January 14, 2021” (Brennan Center). They are codifying a fabricated doubt perpetrated by an unseated authoritarian. Not only does this negatively impact voters of color, but it also hurts the democratic process at large. In 2022, Democrats will have to face difficult odds that are compounded by these new laws. They will need to overwhelmingly come out to vote in order to show that democracy is on the mend. Otherwise, the midterms voter turnout will hint at a fragile democracy.
Trump mobilized many different groups of voters who are often disengaged in the political process, both for and against him. With Trump’s name not being on the ballot, will these voters stay at home come November 8th 2022, or will they remain loyal to the respective candidates in their district? There are four combinations that could offer us insight into the voter’s thought process going to the polls. First is if both of the aforementioned groups stay at home on election day. This could indicate that there is little enthusiasm, even for a midterm, surrounding these candidates and even the democratic process itself. Second is if only the non-Trump supporter base shows up. This would be a good sign for democracy, as Trumpian politics is often anti-democratic. The third scenario is if only the Trump base shows up. This hints that the Republican party’s shift is meaningful and could cause lasting negative effects on democratic institutions. Lastly, the fourth scenario is if both sides come out in full. This would mean that the country is in the same place as it was two years ago, which will only make it harder to repair many of the divides in our nation. Only time will tell what the midterms have in store for American politics.
This touches on a key factor in our current political climate. Negative partisanship is when one’s partisanship manifests itself not as support for their party but opposition for the other party. Many people believe many Biden voters were voting against Donald Trump rather than for Biden. If in 2022 there is a lot of turnout and an energized base that is voting for a candidate and not against the opposing candidate, we will know our democracy is healing. When the non-Trump supporter base shows out, it can be good in the sense that Trumpian politics is anti-democratic. But on the other hand, too much negative partisanship only expands the holes in democracy’s armor.
It is also important to note the extent to which Trump was and still is pressing the “big lie,” which may have an unintended consequence for Republicans. By insisting that the election system cannot be trusted, Trump may be disincentivizing his base from turning out. When people feel as though they are not being heard in the governing process, they will not engage with it. And when they feel robbed as a result of that broken system, they may be more inclined to seek to destroy said system. We saw this throughout the 2020 election, and its effects may not be over. If Trump oversells the doubt in the effectiveness of the democratic system, his base may not show up as forcefully in 2022 as they did the previous cycle.
Going into the midterms, it is not all bracing for impact. Just as voting rights have been attacked, there has been a countermovement to protect them. In fact, “[a]s of January 14, legislators in at least 32 states have introduced, pre-filed, or carried over 399 bills that expand voting access, compared to 286 such bills in 30 states on January 14, 2021” (Brennan Center). This goes to show that there are still those who are fighting for democracy. American democracy has certainly been tested over the last several years. It is every citizen’s responsibility to fight to protect their democratic ideals of tolerance for the dissenting side, inclusion of all citizens in the process, and diversity of meaningful representation. The best way to start is by voting.
Sources:
Morales-Doyle, S., Waldman, M., Efrati, M., & Wilder, W. (2022, April 18). Voting laws roundup: February 2022. Brennan Center for Justice. Retrieved April 25, 2022, from https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/voting-laws-roundup-february-2022
Dalio, R. (2021). Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail. Simon and Schuster.
Thomas,
Always good to hear a new take on what exactly happened in 2020 and how our democracy can move forward. It seems as though many people are stuck in the past. In my own experience, this is certainly the case. Many voters, especially Trump supporters and those older in age, continue to make the 2020 election their primary issue. In terms of support for Republicans in the coming election cycle, this may not bode well. Without trust in the system and a confidence in the ability of our democratic institutions, your hypothesis about lower turnout among Trump-supporting Republicans may come to pass. However, the opposite could just as easily be true.
As we saw on January 6th 2021, when voters (even American voters) perceive the election system as rigged or unrepresentative of their voices, violence may be the outcome. Some political scientists call terrorism an act of the powerless. Whether this powerlessness is fabricated in their own minds or real is seemingly not important.
As I mentioned, the minds of many voters in America are stuck in the last election cycle. On one side, Republicans (especially those endorsed by or close to the former President) focusing on passing more state laws restricting voting in an attempt to rectify what they see as a broken system. On the other hand, Democrats fighting these restrictions and campaigning on a pro-Biden administration ticket. In my opinion, neither position is healthy for our democracy. Moving forward and accepting our election system as intact and functioning properly is important, yes, but I slightly disagree with your assessments, in that refusing to acknowledge legitimate concerns from conservative politicians about election integrity during the height of the pandemic. There are many worrying incidents, including in Georgia, where voter registration and ballot distribution were handled improperly. The election was not stolen, but perhaps it is high time to give our voting system its regularly scheduled “check-up” to ensure that future populist or authoritarian threats cannot take advantage of a broken system.
I absolutely agree that this upcoming midterm cycle will not only have a major impact on policy, but is also going to give us a clear picture on how our democracy is doing. The changes in voting laws could significantly alter races across the nation. Another point that I think is important to make is that the drop in turnout in 2018 was not simply that Trump’s name was not on the ballot, but midterm elections almost always have lower turnout than presidential elections. Simply the presidency is sometimes the only office that voters either care, or know about. That’s why there is a dropoff from voters in presidential races to senate races on the same ballot. With the scenarios you pointed out, the third scenario specifically, where only the Trump base shows up, at this point seems to be very unlikely. In the Republican primary for the Georgia Governor’s race, David Perdue is Trump’s endorsed candidate. However, Perdue has been consistently behind incumbent governor Brian Kemp (who is hated by the former president). While Herschel Walker, Trump’s endorsed candidate in the GA Republican primary for Senate, does have a significant lead in the polls that could very well be because of his connection to the University of Georgia. Polling conducted by the AJC has shown that for 54% of Republican primary voters in Georgia an endorsement by Trump would either make no difference on their vote or even make them less likely to vote. I think the most likely scenario of the midterms is that the Republican party at the very least takes control of the House due to redistricting and low turnout from Democratic voters who do not have much to be inspired by after the first two years of the Biden administration.
Thomas, I found your piece really interesting to read and honestly not something I have thought about a lot. I especially found interesting the various voter thought processes in going to the polls for the midterms. I think you could add to that the impact that Trump’s presidency had on people who previously did not spend a lot of time thinking about politics who now do. I, for instance, think of my mother who had voted for the Republican party her whole life until the 2020 when she felt she could no longer do so. Upon some reflection on what another Trump presidency would mean for America she decided to vote for Joe Biden. This sparked a new political interest in her and she has spent time since doing research and staying updated on current events to truly figure out what her own political beliefs are beyond what she had previously felt. I do not think this realization is unique to my mom and the presidency of Trump has caused a lot of people to pay more attention to politics. While at the surface this sounds like this is a case of negative partisanship, I think it goes beyond that as negative partisanship can only cause people to do so whereas political beliefs with reasons to back it up are more motivating and long lasting. I also think the January 6th riots caused a lot of people to investigate their political beliefs and see if they were willing to be a Trump supporter with the conditions that are now induced as I do think it is a positive thing to be associated with now. I am also curious how it will go beyond the midterms and into the republican primaries in the next presidential election as I do believe Trump’s presidency has completely changed the party.