Is Niger a democratic state? Three years ago, the answer would’ve been a solid no. Niger’s current condition after last year’s presidential election renders today’s answer as an unsteady maybe. Close, but not quite there yet.

Niger’s history with democratic practices and reforms has varied over the years. It is a relatively young “democratic” state, officially formed in 1991 when it elected its first democratic president, Mahamane Ousmane. Ousmane has again put himself in the political spotlight by running against current Nigerien president Mohamed Bazoum in a historic election that could potentially impact Niger’s democratic future significantly. Whether the impact will be positive or negative is hard to say.

Niger’s 2021 election was the first time the previous president peacefully transitioned power over to the winning candidate. Voter turnout was at a record high of 69.67% during the first round of elections, a sizable increase from their past 2011 and 2016 elections, with Bazoum eventually winning 55.6% of the vote. But the promise of a new democratic era is swiftly dissolved as Ousmane refuses to accept the election results. Ousmane and his supporters take to the streets of Niger’s capital Niamey and Zinder, demanding an annulment of the election’s results. Tensions were heightened as law enforcement began to flood protestors with tear gas and arrest hundreds of protesters, including the former prime minister, Hama Amadou. This has caused much discourse surrounding the democratic freedom to protest. To add even more fuel to the fire, to counter protester efforts, the government proceeded to shut down the internet for ten days following the election.

Thus, while the 2021 Niger election opened a door for future peaceful democratic transitions of power, it also opened two completely different but important doors: a potential coup and the push to solidify democratic rights. One door presents a few symptoms of democratic erosion: refusal to accept election results, overall distrust in the electoral process, censorship of public criticism against the government, and the dwindling right to protest. The one sliver of hope that one could hold onto is that the previous president peacefully stepped down. Yet, it’s concerning when the losing candidate happens to be a former president with a huge following. Ousmane had 44% of the votes, indicating that less than half of Niger’s voting population refuses to accept the election’s results, thus undermining the electoral process. The ingredients of a populist leader are present. Growing distrust in the government, combined with increased media censorship, harassment, and imprisonment of journalists and government critics, could lead to an outcome that would negate the slight step towards democracy demonstrated through the past election. One could argue it’s only a matter of time before Niger has its fourth successful government coup.

However, the other door presents a possibly more hopeful future. More citizens than ever are participating in government elections and holding their government accountable for human rights violations. The Freedom House has increased Niger’s democracy index score significantly in the past years. Today, Niger’s freedom score is 51/100 and labeled “party free.” Niger has a score of 23/40 for political rights and 28/60 for civil liberties. It is evident that the people of Niger want free and fair elections, but how long must they wait? This door might not be opened for a very long time, but there is merit in recognizing Niger’s potential to progress toward a more democratic state.