South Korea is still extremely young in its democracy compared to the rest of the developed world, becoming a democracy post Korean War around 1950. Nonetheless, the inexperience in regard to democratic culture and norms did not stop them from being one of the highest rated countries in terms of freedom/democracy scores in measures such as the Freedom House and the V-Dem Project within half a century. However, over the last decade, specifically under the lead of 12th President Moon Jae-In, South Korean journalists and academics alike have started to develop a fear of ever growing signs pointing towards South Korea’s decline in democratic standards.
Signs of democratic erosion have started to leak into the politics of South Korea. This fact is undeniable with rallies of Pro and Anti-Moon supporters and a culture of mistrust between political parties growing throughout the presidency of Moon Jae-In. Moon has continued to use a rhetoric of “Good” vs “Evil” which continues to delegitimize opposition and paint an ever-grimmer picture to the state of South Korea’s democracy.
Are all these signs calls for panic and concern within South Korea? The numbers are currently pointing towards “No”. The Freedom House has marked South Korea as one of the most stable democracies with a score between 80-85/100 over the last two decades. The V-Dem Project only showed a significant drop during the major corruption scandal where President Park Geun-Hye was impeached and convicted on corruption charges in 2018. The scores have since stabilized and are now in an even higher position compared to where they were before the impeachment in 2018. Most NGO measurements of democracy in South Korea are showing a lack of significant decline in democratic norms in the country and paint a picture of stability.
However, if there was ever a time to learn from your allies, now is the time. South Korea’s political landscape is becoming eerily similar to that of the United States. If we think about the 2008 and 2016 Presidential elections in the U.S and compare them to the two most recent presidential elections in South Korea, the parallels are uncanny. In 2008, Obama was elected after one of the most infamous instances of media and public manipulation (Iraq War) started to come to the light of the public, leading then President George W. Bush into one of the lowest approval ratings of a sitting president with 28% in 2007. This major political backlash lead to the election of the opposing party’s representative of Barack Obama, similar to the election of Democratic party candidate Moon Jae-In in South Korea after the impeachment of Conservative President Park Geun-Hye. With distrust in institutions and government in both the South Korean public under Moon, and the U.S public under Obama, the fires of populism began to develop in both situations, with the reaction being exactly the same. The U.S elected their 45th President Donald. J Trump, which ended up degrading the democratic institutions and norms of the U.S to a much more significant degree compared to anything that developed in South Korea over the last two decades. Now the South Korean public has just elected Yoon Suk Yeol, a conservative political outsider that supports ideas such abolishing Korea’s Gender Equality Ministry, and has huge support from young male voters and right wing populists, sound familiar?
The parallels are almost undeniable, and in my opinion, if the COVID-19 crisis did not negatively effect Trump as much as it did, he would have won the 2020 Election vs Joe Biden. Currently, Joe Biden is restoring at least some faith in democratic institutions, along with his and the Democrats’ significant overperformance in the 2022 midterms. This overperformance especially has started to display the significant decline in Trump’s populist politics specifically in the U.S, putting them back on the rise in metrics such as the Freedom House. However, who knows how much further democracy would have eroded under a second term of Donald Trump, and an ever-increasing popularity for right-wing populism. Unless President Yoon heavily underperforms in an area, or is exposed in a massive scandal, his re-election is very possibly due to incumbent advantage. South Korea could witness a political culture that the U.S never did, a prospect that is extremely concerning considering the situation the U.S was in just 2-3 years ago.
Now if I was living in South Korea right now, I would not panic. Democracy is not going to crumble overnight, and President Yoon is not going to turn the country into Armageddon, however, I would stay alert. Stay observant on the rhetoric and actions of President Yoon and his supporters, and make sure to develop your own views and opinions on issues. Stay educated and independent and speak up when you find it necessary. Stay strong.
For my case study I wrote about the state of democracy in Singapore, a country that shares a uniquely similar history and path of development with South Korea. Both countries have developed into financial and technology hubs within the last half-century under two very different systems of government. Although their systems of government are different in practice, they are very similar on paper. Singapore has overwhelmingly elected one demonstratively capable party for its whole history, whereas South Korea has dealt with comparatively higher political competition. Nonetheless, both countries are in a similar spot developmentally despite taking very different routes. It would be interesting to do a cross-country analysis to explain how both countries reached the same point despite differences in levels of political competition.
Another notable difference is the symptoms of democratic erosion that the countries are experiencing. As you described in your blog post, South Korea seems to be experiencing heightened polarization, distrust in government institutions, and populism. As you mentioned these symptoms mirror the situation in the United States, and threaten the integrity of democratic institutions. The situation in Singapore, however, is very different. The party in power has been given an overwhelming mandate for decades, and has used this power to plant barriers ahead of potential competitors. The party, however, is very receptive to public opinion, so they remain popular. While South Korea suffers from heightened polarization and competition, Singapore struggles with a lack thereof. It is very interesting to see how both countries have developed similarly, yet have different governance styles and different threats to democracy.
I agree with you that South Korean democracy is not immediately under threat of democratic erosion despite the presence of several symptoms, such as populist leaders like Yoon and divisive, heavily polarized rhetoric along the campaign trail. However, I agree with you for different reasons. Primarily, I believe that South Korean Presidents are ineligible to run for re-election to the position, although this doesn’t mean that Yoon wouldn’t be able to achieve another government position after his tenure as president. Second, he is also massively unpopular at the moment, with his approval rating, even among his voter base, only recently rising to 36%, so further support may also be up for debate.
I also wonder about the parallels between Moon Jae-In and Obama. I agree that populism arose under both Democratic leaders, but for different reasons. I would argue that populism arose under Moon jae-In mainly on account of his lack of accountability, deepening inequality in Korean society, and elitism and charges of corruption, while under Obama, populism arose mainly due to growing racism and white extremism, and voters in rural areas (Rust Belt) being left behind by policy changes.
I agree overall with your messaging, that South Korea has symptoms of democratic erosion but the systems won’t immediately collapse, but I think that potentially the resilience of the Korean people, especially considering previous history of mass nonviolent protests (such as the Candlelight Resistance) and the unpopularity of President Yoon, will aid in the reinforcement of democracy.
This piece read slightly differently from other blog posts, in that it truly addresses its audience. Ending the post with advice for South Koreans and the words “stay strong” demonstrates an alternate purpose than I originally considered for this site. Sometimes intellectual discourse can devolve into discussions that are so separated from the challenging realities that others face. Josiah instead lays out a case study, and its implications for South Korean citizens with heartfelt concern and intelligent parallels. I think this post provides a good opportunity to reassess the goals of the larger Democratic Erosion blog.
I’m impressed by your detailed comparison between the US’s recent democratic backsliding and recent events in South Korea. In particular, I am fascinated by your insightful connection between the American public’s distrust of President George Bush toward the end of his presidency and the impeachment of South Korean President Park Geun-Hye. From what I’ve read, scholars do not typically attribute the US’s democratic backsliding to President Bush. Instead, scholarly narratives of this backsliding typically begin with the election or the 2016 campaign of President Donald Trump. Nevertheless, I agree with your suggestion that distrust in institutions may be contributing to democratic backsliding in both the US and South Korea. Bush’s violation of the American people’s trust during the Iraq War may indeed have led to the present-day situation in the US. Nowadays, many Americans are skeptical of the government and electoral institutions, which is certainly weakening our democracy.
After reading your post, I’m curious about what other populist or antidemocratic behavior President Yoon Suk Yeol has exhibited. You mention that he hopes to abolish the Gender Equality Ministry, but has he engaged in any other authoritarian tendencies or behaviors? For instance, has he attacked the press or questioned the legitimacy of any of South Korea’s other institutions? Because President Yoon took office less than a year ago, there may be fewer examples to draw from. However, Trump certainly displayed many antidemocratic warning signs during his 2016 campaign, so I’m wondering whether President Yoon did as well.