As an entrenched democracy with widespread and relatively open political and social institutions, the United Kingdom might not immediately come to mind for a state that is backsliding away from democracy. Indeed, Freedom House ranks the UK as one of the freest and most democratic countries on a global scale while Varieties of Democracy (V-Dem) shows no significant autocratizing within the state (Freedom House 2023; Varieties of Democracy Institute 2023). However, simply because there is no present democratic erosion does not mean that states are invulnerable to its effects. The institutions within the United Kingdom seem in many ways prime to be exploited by populists or other would-be autocrats. Current policies and dysfunction within the Government and Parliament, alongside the previous case of Brexit demonstrate this. To better understand and prevent democratic erosion, the UK is a helpful case to analyze how institutions can possibly be used undermined democracy in the future.
There is no better place to start for this than the 2016 Brexit referendum over whether the UK should leave the European Union. Although on its face a popular referendum would seem to be the epitome of democratic expression, in this case it drove division and the partial normalization of populist rhetoric thereby turning into a microcosm of the flaws within many Western democracies. For example, a major impetus for the referendum was the growing, if still small, electoral influences of the UK Independence Party (UKIP), a right-wing populist party which gained seats in Parliament and a majority of seats for the UK’s European Parliament delegation by capitalizing on longstanding Euroscepticism within the country (Shaw, Smith, and Scully 2017; Webb and Bale 2014). UKIP displayed the hallmarks of populism with opposition against liberal elites and an “Us” versus “Them” rhetoric strategy (Müller 2016).
With the mainstream Conservative Party facing voting losses from its right flank, it was necessary for them to respond in some way. As indicated by Berman (2021), in this scenario parties are faced with strategies of being either dismissive, adversarial, and accommodating towards successful populist parties. In this case, the decision by the Conservative government to co-opt Euroscepticism culminated in the decision to hold a Brexit referendum despite a lack of clear support amongst the political establishment (Shaw, Smith, and Scully 2017). Although this halted the electoral successes of UKIP and clear-cut populism, the success of the referendum meant the resignation of the Prime Minister and an eventual exit from the EU. These events showed the vulnerability of the party system towards resisting populist policies and tactics. In the years following, populist rhetoric has not necessarily abated. Conservative leaders used similar rhetoric to implement Brexit and have continued to espouse sometimes controversial anti-immigration views.
There are other structural problems that are worrying for the United Kingdom in the age of democratic backsliding. In particular systemic issues relating to the majoritarian nature of Parliament and the plurality voting system. When put in light of other examples of democratic erosion in countries like Poland and Hungary whose ruling parties faced obstacles to erosion, there is relatively little in the way to stop the same within the UK.
Other countries must reckon with constitutional restraints and supermajority rules. Meanwhile, the UK lacks a codified constitution, running on majoritarianism and the strength of democratic norms instead. Essentially, as long as a majority party maintains cohesion they could theoretically repeal or pass any laws they wish. Additionally, the court system would likely not be a large impediment or a major target by a party eroding democracy. Without a constitution and under principles of parliamentary sovereignty, court rulings are limited to procedural and law interpretation issues (Casciani 2019; Greene 2020).
Another avenue oft used in backsliding countries is to manipulate the electoral system. As the United Kingdom uses plurality single member districts to vote, they are vulnerable to the effects of gerrymandering. Strategies to undermine opposition parties in this way have been particularly effective in Hungary where that ruling Fidesz party has redrawn districts and received a disproportionate number of seats in return (Scheppele 2022). These tactics undermine necessary democratic values inherent within free and fair elections diluting the ability for citizens to have their voices heard (Levitsky and Way 2002). If citizens begin losing confidence in the electoral system, it is not too far before the legitimacy and effectiveness of democracy begins to be lost (Linz 1978).
So where do these factors leave the UK’s ability to resist democratic erosion? Clearly the UK is still a strong democracy. The very fact that democratic norms have held despite institutional gaps would seem to indicate a strong democratic state. However, that should not obstinate a very real worry: though thus far neither major party in UK has shown obvious authoritarian tendencies there are few institutional guardrails against it.
The US has a strong constitution and court system yet has still seen a dysfunction of democratic and civil norms precipitated by the Trump presidency (Crandall, Miller, and White 2018; Gills, Patomäki, and Morgan 2019). Erosion is not a process limited to the newer democracies in places like Eastern Europe; longstanding democracies are also facing issues in this regard. And regardless of democratic erosion, the UK political system is going through some level of dysfunction already. The Conservative Party has been in power for over a decade and in just the previous six years have gone through five prime ministers. And with support shifting strongly away from the party, elections still probably remain a year away (Courea 2023; Gregory 2022). In addition, economic hardship and changing cultural norms have become major political issues, a worrying development as they can encourage further populism (Inglehart and Norris 2017). Such volatilities could spell trouble if not dealt with in an equitable way and might destabilize trust in institutions even further than Brexit. The response by major parties to these crises during the upcoming election could be a major indicator of current attitudes towards populism and democratic norms.
That being said, we should not be overly negative about the position the UK finds itself in. Despite the divisiveness and populist rhetoric during Brexit, the exit eventually happened through negotiations by the government following a decisive election victory. The ability for institutions to survive these challenges and the possibility of elections to continue in a free and fair manner may bode well into the future if other issues can be overcome. For a system supremely reliant on democratic norms and responsible majoritarianism, the UK’s core institutions seem to be resilient in this moment.
References
Berman, Sheri. 2021. “The Causes of Populism in the West.” Annual Review of Political Science 24(1): 71–88. https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/10.1146/annurev-polisci-041719-102503 (October 20, 2023).
Casciani, Dominic. 2019. “What Is the UK Supreme Court?” BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-49663001 (November 4, 2023).
Courea, Elein. 2023. “Embattled Rishi Sunak ‘Entirely Confident’ He Can Win in 2024.” Politico. https://www.politico.eu/article/uks-embattled-rishi-sunak-fired-up-and-entirely-confident-he-can-win-in-2024/ (November 4, 2023).
Crandall, Christian S., Jason M. Miller, and Mark H. White. 2018. “Changing Norms Following the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election: The Trump Effect on Prejudice.” Social Psychological and Personality Science 9(2): 186–92. http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1948550617750735 (November 5, 2023).
Freedom House. 2023. “United Kingdom: Freedom in the World 2023 Country Report.” Freedom House. https://freedomhouse.org/country/united-kingdom/freedom-world/2023 (November 3, 2023).
Gills, Barry, Heikki Patomäki, and Jamie Morgan. 2019. “President Trump as Status Dysfunction.” Organization 26(2): 291–301. http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/1350508418815419 (November 5, 2023).
Greene, Alan. 2020. “Parliamentary Sovereignty and the Locus of Constituent Power in the United Kingdom.” International Journal of Constitutional Law 18(4): 1166–1200. https://academic.oup.com/icon/article/18/4/1166/6156765 (November 5, 2023).
Gregory, James. 2022. “Three PMs in Two Months, Is Political Chaos the UK’s New Normal?” BBC News. https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-63383616 (November 4, 2023).
Inglehart, Ronald, and Pippa Norris. 2017. “Trump and the Populist Authoritarian Parties: The Silent Revolution in Reverse.” Perspectives on Politics 15(2): 443–54. https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1537592717000111/type/journal_article (October 11, 2023).
Levitsky, Steven, and Lucan Way. 2002. “The Rise of Competitive Authoritarianism.” Journal of Democracy 13(2): 51–65. http://muse.jhu.edu/content/crossref/journals/journal_of_democracy/v013/13.2levitsky.html (August 17, 2023).
Linz, Juan J. 1978. Crisis, Breakdown & Reequilibration. Baltimore: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Müller, Jan-Werner. 2016. What Is Populism? Philadelphia: University of Pennsylvania Press.
Scheppele, Kim Lane. 2022. “How Viktor Orbán Wins.” Journal of Democracy 33(3): 45–61. https://muse.jhu.edu/article/860244 (November 5, 2023).
Shaw, Duncan, Chris M. Smith, and Judy Scully. 2017. “Why Did Brexit Happen? Using Causal Mapping to Analyse Secondary, Longitudinal Data.” European Journal of Operational Research 263(3): 1019–32. https://linkinghub.elsevier.com/retrieve/pii/S0377221717305155 (November 4, 2023).
Varieties of Democracy Institute. 2023. “Democracy Reports.” V-Dem. https://www.v-dem.net/publications/democracy-reports/ (November 5, 2023).
Webb, Paul, and Tim Bale. 2014. “Why Do Tories Defect to UKIP? Conservative Party Members and the Temptations of the Populist Radical Right.” Political Studies 62(4): 961–70. http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1111/1467-9248.12130 (November 5, 2023).
Hello Jake,
The United Kingdom is a country that many people do not associate with democratic erosion. However, it can be seen that the United Kingdom has an interesting take on a democratic system. They have a monarch as their head of state yet, the monarchy itself is mostly a figurehead. Also, the fact that they don’t have document equivalent to the constitution leaves them extremely vulnerable. The fallout from Brexit and the fact that the country had three different prime ministers in 2022 alone prove that. It would be unheard of for that to happen in the United States or any other country that has some form of a constitution in place. Overall, while the United Kingdoms democracy isn’t in a bad spot; it certainly has it’s blind spots that need to be addressed.