As the 2024 Presidential election comes close, many of us are asking the same fearful questions: if Donald Trump finds his way to power again, will this ultimately diminish democracy  in the United States? There is no simple answer—but it’s certainly possible. Today, many citizens are tired of broken promises,which could lead to a less democratic country with fewer political rights and freedoms.

In the past electoral, Donald Trump used very aggressive, dangerous, and even  “weaponized” rhetoric. He claimed Barack Obama was not born in the United States, and certain ethnic groups are rapists, thieves, and a threat to the American people. We have also heard Donald Trump  use xenophobic rhetoric, very similar to xenophobic populist leaders in Europe. He claims dangerous immigrants seek refuge in the US, and uses scapegoating rhetoric against the LGBTQ+ community and lower income status groups.

This political behavior is part of a populist agenda. Populism has the potential to be dangerous to the sustainability of our democracy, and cause the erosion of citizens’ disaffection with the  current state of our economy, healthcare, and other political issues like immigration. Populists today are taking a “slow and steady” approach to democratic backsliding, which starts with democratic elections and then later creating a widespread discontent for democracy through scapegoating. Donald Trump’s behavior aligns with this model. He blames the left. He blames citizens who outwardly will not vote for him. Scapegoating rhetoric tends to direct blame toward relatively small groups with relatively minimal power to influence electoral outcomes.

Additionally, recent research shows us that citizens who are unsupportive of minority groups are more likely to be fond of Donald Trump’s rhetoric, showing that discriminatory attitudes are also at the heart of the “party of Donald Trump” which is a political group compromised of not merely “Republicans.” With his populist rhetoric, the United States has become even more polarized. In particular, polarization in the US has grown to be increasingly “affective” or emotional. Politicians, as well as voters, believe that more polarizing candidates have a better shot at winning an election due to the irreconcilable ideas among party lines. Affective polarization is essentially emotional polarization—today, members of the Republican party do not like the Democratic party and vice versa—it is increasingly harder for the two parties to be friends.Rather, they see one another as the enemy, which pushes the two to delve deeper into their moral values, asserting the other as immoral or unethical. This is due to misbeliefs about the policies and ideals of other parties, which Trump worsened in his years of being in office by spreading misinformation about the Democratic party and the outcomes of the last election.

Affective polarization is not the only factor contributing to democratic backsliding. Rather, democratic backsliding is a product of the way people conform back to their social identity after discourse with the other party, as well as the continued rhetoric of party leaders, failing to condemn the misinformation that is being spread. To put it firmly, closed mindedness on both ends. Along with the rise of emotions, the urban/rural partisan divide has widened. I argue that this is a result, in part, of Donald Trump’s rhetoric and populist behavior. It contributes to deepening divisions. American democracy relies on norms, and when the rules are not followed, democracy can decay. This struggle can also lead to conflict about core national values and even so- called “culture wars”.  On the right, some Republicans see America as a Christian nation that has secure borders. On the left, Democrats prioritize things like the LGBTQ+ community and the right to an abortion. Simply put, when parties adopt irreconcilable positions, it further amplifies polarization.

Polarization is in part a result of Donald Trump’s populist rhetoric. Here, we see groups like rural communities majorly resenting the “liberal elite”. In some ways, rural people feel that they are ignored by decision makers,  do not believe that they get their fair share of resources, and are being surpassed, unfairly, by “line cutters”. Trump, throughout his Presidency, consistently mentioned that rural America was unique to the rest of America, that they were ignored, further ingraining these ideas in the minds of rural Americans. These voters, therefore, have developed increasingly negative views toward other races and ethnicities, which can push voters to want to reduce the connectivity that rural area voters have toward the poor and lower income voters. This group of people feels threatened and resentful toward the rise of minorities. All in all, many rural area voters blame those that appear as less than them or “less American” than them—and Trump has worsened this scenario with rhetoric openly disdaining constitutional norms. This is a huge threat to democracy in the U.S. for a multitude of reasons: populists, like Trump, commonly claim that the problems of today can be easily solved and blame other leaders for failing to solve them. Donald Trump’s rhetoric sounds like this—let’s build a wall, let’s drain the swamp—like it is simply that easy. Additionally, populist leaders commonly build up a network of loyalists and develop media platforms that perpetuate their rhetoric— for example, Fox News and far right news sources maintain a common political agenda. The silencing of the press, as well as the division of news sources, is dangerous to democracy. It further constitutional norms and rules, and risks reversion toward autocracy and dictatorship that could worsen if Trump finds office again. 

In conclusion, the real separation of the people and the elite, in line with populist rhetoric, has the potential to undermine democracy, and many careful analysts are sounding alarm bells that Donald Trump could do even worse damage to democracy with another four years in office. The outcome could exacerbate dangerous polarization that U.S. citizens have already seen take a toll– the January 6 insurrection, Trump’s decision to not concede to a peaceful transfer of power, and ongoing failures to get things done in congress. In an even more polarized and populist America, it remains very possible the experiment of democracy could become even more chaotic.