Indonesia has a complex history of social cleavages which has marked periods of polarization and unity. In recent years, pluralist and Islamic elements across Indonesia have rivaled each other for power. This has marked a change in the character of recent campaign elections in which social identity and group mentality has presided. Each side fears a political takeover from the other. Currently the president of Indonesia is Joko Widodo who was first elected to office in 2004. President Widodo is commonly known of Jokowi, and he has been a fierce controversial candidate. While very popular with some elements of the Indonesian population, his presidency has been marked by growing authoritarianism. This may be due to multiple factors, however historic social inequality and political polarization have added to the problem. This may be alarming for the future of Indonesian politics. Indonesia may be prone to future democratic backsliding due to noticeable social inequality and a rise in polarization. 

Indonesia has a diverse set of ethnic groups that make up numerous social cleavages. Foremost, Indonesia’s two largest ethnic groups are Javanese, making up 40 percent of the population, and Sundanese making up 15.5 percent of the population. There are thousands more ethnicities within Indonesia, such as Malay, Batak, Madurese, and Betawi, but none of these groups represent more than 4 percent of the population. Amongst these ethnic groups there is a wide variety of religions, with Islam being the dominant at 87.2 percent. Yet, there are considerable religious minorities, such as Protestantism at 7 percent, Roman Catholic at 3 percent, and Hindu at 1.7 percent. Furthermore, there are more than 700 languages used within Indonesia, with Bhasa being the official language.   

Indonesia oppresses certain minority demographics that could lead to democratic backsliding. Indonesia has consistently received low scores on religious freedom and equality. Freedom House cites the 2022 passing of a new criminal code, taking effect in 2026, that will prohibit “blasphemy” and keep atheism illegal in the country. Human Right Watch states that the criminal code goes against numerous basic human rights, such as the right to privacy. Human Rights Watch notes that this criminal code will likely worsen already prevalent discrimination against LGTBQ individuals. The new code will create a ban on all sex outside marriage, a feature of the code that will apply to individuals regardless of gender. Beyond religion and sexuality, Indonesia is noted for its gender inequality. In recent years Indonesia has tried to close their gender gap, but this attempt has not been universally successful. Forced hijab mandates have been hotly debated across Indonesia, as some non-Muslim girls were forced to wear the religious attire in school . Furthermore, Indonesia is still marked by higher levels of underage marriage, gender violence, and adolescent births. About 16.3 percent of Indonesian girls aged 20-24 were married before the age of 18. 8.9 percent of Indonesian women aged 15-49 report experiencing abuse in the last 12 months from a past or current partner. These trends are alarming for future democratic consolidation in Indonesia, as significant portions of the Indonesian government are already being disenfranchised. Likewise, gender inequality and unequal gender representation has been argued to be linked to worsening democratic erosion of female rights. This was seen in the aftermath of the overturning of Roe v Wade in the United States, where states with the lowest gender political representation were found to have passed aggressive abortion bans.  

Furthermore, polarization has been an increasing factor in Indonesian politics, foreshadowing an alarming future for democratic erosion. Indonesia importantly is comprised of numerous fractionalized legislative parties that typically receive only 1/5^th of seats in their legislature. This makes their democracy prime for polarization, which was seen in Indonesia’s 2014, 2017, and 2019. These elections marked staunch competition for Indonesia’s executive branch between Islamic and Pluralist cleavages. These elections were characterized by their messages which were largely based off identity. Pluralist campaigns included anti-islamist messages, as well as Muslim campaigns running on pluralism being an “enemy” of Islam. This level of polarization is a recent development in Indonesia democracy. This increased polarization has led to numerous protests across Indonesia in recent years. In 2019, incumbent president Jokowi responded to protesters by arresting group leaders of the movement #2019ChangePresident. This was staunch use of authoritarian power, and future polarization could led to more authoritarianism. Indonesian politics utilize a distinct element of political appointments that may be at risk of democratic erosion due to polarization. President Jokowi has already utilized political appointments to lessens accountability. In 2014 he appointed a loyalist attorney general to office that was able to attack opposition candidates on corruption charges. These recent democratic trends have not been totally caused by polarization, but it has certainly exacerbated the problem. If this trend continues Indonesia may experience future democratic erosion.   

Democracy in Indonesia may be threatened in the future due to democratic backsliding, as social inequalities are worsened by political polarization. A society cannot be truly democratic while it disenfranchises segments of its population, as equality is a core tenant of any liberal democracy. Yet, it is evident that Indonesia has not been historically equal to all its demographics, and new legislative measures will only worsen this problem in the future. Indonesia’s new 2026 criminal code has been criticized for his draconian and authoritarian laws. Religious freedom has been questioned across the country, as religious attire has been forced in some schools. However, these inequalities are further reinforced by recent polarization. A turn in Indonesian politics has been marked, as social identity has become highly influential. Pluralists have feared Islamist sentiments, while Islamic parties have feared an attack on Islam. This polarization may turn to even more authoritarian measures if politics become more existential. Social inequalities may become manipulated and politicized during this time of polarization, as identity may become even more relevant in Indonesian politics.