Authoritarianism is already a menace in the history of the world; however, the recent wave of autocratization has allowed for the birth of a different type of monster that is harder to kill—democratic backsliding. 

Bolsonaro’s regime was illustrated as “extremist populism with a religious, exclusionary, and anti-pluralist background,” which has undermined the democratic institutions of Brazil, and his anti-establishment government is a typical example of democratic backsliding. Nancy Bermeo explored the phenomenon of democratic backsliding comprehensively—due to the legitimacy provided by democratic institutions to anti-democratic ideas and strategies—democratic backsliding is harder to spot, making it harder to resist. 

However, even if Brazil was on the verge of democratic breakdown, Lula defeated Bolsonaro in the 2022 Presidential elections, reversing the autocratic trajectory of Brazil. The electoral court of Brazil also banned Bolsonaro from running for eight years due to abuse of power. This is a step forward to restoring democratic institutions in Brazil, after Bolsonaro’s consistent attack to undermine the judiciary. If he was left on his course, Bolsonaro could turn Brazil into Venezuela’s judicial situation wherein Maduro and his cronies could practice impunity amid breaking the rule of law, violate his dissident’s parliamentary immunity, and render him invulnerable from legal accountability [Suggested Read: Escobar & Pozzebon (2019) Venezuela and Judicial Abuse]. 

BOLSONARISMO IS ALIVE

However, the threat of Bolsonaro’s autocratic legacy is not yet over. Aside from the political revival of Bolsonaro’s career after the term of his suspension, which Lula himself proved to be possible, the Bolsonarista movement is alive in Brazil’s local and national political arenas. There are already new names that are being primed to usher post-Bolsonarismo right-wing politics at the local levels, such as Romeu Zema of Minas Gerais, Cláudio Castro of Rio de Janeiro, and Tarcísio de Freitas of São Paulo. There even have been talks of Bolsonaro’s wife Michelle continuing the former president’s policies, which would garner support from working-class women (Stargardter, 2023). Further, support from the movement also comes from other public personalities significant to influencing Bolsonarista politics. It can be recalled that prominent football stars and businessmen have provided support to the populist, which is a significant boost for the movement’s public image and financing. Among the latter, magnates Jose Koury and Luciano Hang, are currently under investigation for allegedly planning a coup should Bolsonaro lose the election. Lastly, disinformation plays a crucial role in mobilizing public support for Bolsonaro. According to research by de Albaquerque & Alves, Bolsonaristas feed on hate speech and false information disseminated in social media spaces such as Facebook to propel Bolsonaro’s popularity. The disinformation network also showed resilience amidst social media bans, as they moved towards more permissive spaces such as Telegram and WhatsApp to spread fake news and promote mobilizations. These factors exacerbate Brazil’s already polarized political environment, further prompting pro-Bolsonaro cleavages to sow distrust and hatred in the very institutions that declared the loss of their champion in retaining the presidency. All these manifested in the coup attempt initiated in Brazil’s top government offices three months after Lula’s election victory.

TOWARDS A BETTER DEMOCRACY IN BRAZIL

Early on in Lula’s term, Brazil has been seeing Bolsonaro’s influence wane, as the democratic rule of law slowly regains its power in the country. Immediately after the election, the judiciary proceeded to hold Bolsonaro accountable for his abuse of power to cast doubts on the effectiveness of the country’s electronic system. Further investigations are now underway to address allegations of embezzlement, falsification of records, and his involvement in the 2023 attempted coup. Beyond this, the new administration is also working towards curtailing the spread of disinformation by passing laws regulating social media content and setting up special prosecution procedures against fake news directed at public policy and offices. However, many are criticizing these policies as tantamount to state censorship that may infringe on Brazilians’ right to free speech. 

While these immediate measures seem to be working in restricting Bolsonaro’s reconsolidation of power, his movement lives on and continues to be felt within Brazilian society. A key question then must be asked: Are these policies enough to ensure Brazil does not fall prey again to autocrats like Bolsonaro?

While Lula is still believed to be the frontrunner for the next elections in 2026 (Silva, 2024), which would allow him to have more time to restore the democratic institutions that Bolsonaro eroded during his regime, we should always remember that democratic consolidation isn’t a one-man job and cannot happen overnight. It is not enough to cut off a snake’s head to kill it, even killing it is not the solution, making sure that the political climate does not breed more autocratic tendencies is the way to go. To clarify, this does not mean repression of individuals who also espouse autocratic ideas, because democracy is both a process and an outcome. Brazil should root out how Bolsonaro rose to power, and address the source of these anti-democratic grievances. Bolsonaro took advantage of the failures of the system—economic crisis, rampant corruption, and endemic violent crime—and turned these grievances into political mandates, which allowed him to justify all of his aggrandizement (Kirby, 2018). Hence, more than holding Bolsonaro accountable, it is by addressing the social, political, and economic inequalities that Brazil can make lasting democratic institutions.

The challenge Brazil faces extends far beyond Bolsonaro himself—Lula’s victory and Bolsonaro’s ban are steps in the right direction, but we should not stop there. There should be a continuous process of reform of democratic institutions to ensure that they remain to be responsive to the needs of all their citizens. This is the only chance that Brazil can truly slay the autocratic serpent and prevent the rise of another demagogue.

Authors: James Stephen Balbuena and Gerald Mushi Dino

*Photo is taken from NBC News