Before October of 2023, Freedom House described Poland as having “the swiftest democratic decline in the [European] region.” The far-right, nationalist Law and Justice party (PiS) had been in power since 2015. The years of their rule were characterized by recognized indicators of democratic backsliding.1 PiS filled the judiciary with loyalists and seized control of media outlets to promote party interests. Because of their firm grip on state institutions and media, there were concerns about the fairness of the upcoming October 2023 parliamentary elections. The relatively unexpected victory of the center-left opposition coalition sent a message of hope to champions of democracy across the European region and the world. How did Poland achieve this, and could other countries follow a similar trajectory?
While a variety of factors could explain this unexpected shift, it is clear that reproductive rights played a consequential role in the reversal of democratic backsliding in Poland. Without the galvanizing issue of abortion rights on the ballot, the opposition would not have succeeded in displacing the far-right, populist government in the 2023 parliamentary elections. Tighter abortion restrictions gave disaffected Polish citizens an issue to rally around – especially women and young voters, who turned out to vote in record numbers. Civic action from more sections of the electorate caused a “tipping the scales” effect that removed the populist PiS from power.
Although the future remains unseen, it is likely that reproductive rights will have a similar “tipping the scales” effect in the outcome of the United States 2024 Presidential Election. The story of Poland can serve as inspiration for those concerned about the trajectory of democracy under a second Trump administration. Drawing parallels between movements for reproductive rights in both countries charts a possible path forward for the United States.
Concerns about the welfare of both Polish and US democracy often stem from concerns about populist leadership. To make the claim that ousting a populist government led to the reversal of democratic backsliding, another underlying claim is required: populism is a danger to democracy. (This is consistent with arguments from What is Populism? by Jan-Werner Müller.) If populism degrades democracy, then populist leadership in Poland and the United States poses a threat. The reversal of democratic deterioration would require removing these populists from power.
Anti-pluralism is a key component of populism. Throughout its rule, Poland’s PiS worked to dismantle pluralist systems in government. One of the most notable examples is the installment of loyalists in the judiciary. These judges were responsible for the restrictive abortion decision that was the catalyst for the downfall of PiS. In 2020, the Polish Constitutional Tribunal ruled that it was unconstitutional to obtain an abortion because of fetal defects (the reason for 98% of all abortions in Poland). Despite a large Catholic presence in Poland, polling in 2020 after the ruling highlighted the people’s dissatisfaction: 66-73%2 of people expressed a negative opinion towards the Constitutional Tribunal’s ruling. Protestors took to the streets, angered by even stricter regulations on abortion (Prior to the ruling, abortion was only legal in cases of incest, rape, or threatening the life of the mother). Around 430,000 people participated in 410 protests across the country, resulting in “the largest wave of national protest in Poland seen since the fall of communism.” The opposition coalition capitalized on the people’s passion. Liberalization of abortion policies became a key aspect of their campaign, and they reaped the rewards.
Momentum from the protests translated into unprecedented voter turnout in the parliamentary elections – 74% of the electorate showed up to vote. Especially notable was the sizable increase in women voters (up 12% from 2019) and youth voters (up 22% from 2019). For the first time in Polish history, more women voted than men (75% compared to 73%). Many of these women voted for the opposition who were seeking to liberalize abortion rights. As for Polish youth, “voter turnout was actually higher among people under 30 than those 60 and over.” The electrifying issue of abortion rights awakened disaffected groups in the electorate, mobilizing Polish citizens to displace the ruling party. Through their votes, Polish citizens engaged in a fight for the preservation of democratic values.
Backlash from civil society against the restrictive abortion ruling in Poland parallels circumstances in the United States. The 2022 reversal of Roe v. Wade by the Supreme Court caused similar protests about restrictive abortion access. Just as in Poland, the courts were used to advance a populist agenda. Like the PiS loyalists on the Constitutional Tribunal, the judges responsible for the Supreme Court ruling in the United States were handpicked by a populist leader – Donald Trump – during his term. He prides himself for being responsible for the reversal of Roe. Trump’s culpability in restricting abortion rights could be his downfall in the upcoming election.
Is it really fair, though, to say that a second Trump term would deteriorate US democracy? Perhaps the situation of Poland is different because the country was truly sliding into authoritarianism, while the United States is simply exaggerating fears of democratic decline. However, if Trump is indeed a populist then a second term poses a threat to American democracy. His inflammatory rhetoric towards opposition, his refusal to compromise (exemplified by the killing of a bipartisan immigration bill in 2024), and his insistence that he won the previous election (especially keeping in mind the January 6 insurrection) all lend themselves to a populist agenda. Will his role in restricting reproductive freedoms affect his bid for re-election and subsequently prevent the United States from beginning a process of democratic decline?
If the example of Poland is to be taken seriously, reproductive rights will be a small but significant issue that “tips the scales” against populist leadership. Particularly among American women voters, the appeal of voting for Donald Trump lessens with the issue of abortion rights on the table. Polls conducted in July of 2024 demonstrate that Democratic candidate Kamala Harris leads in support from women voters by 15 points. Her support for abortion rights makes her a more favorable candidate. Additionally, reproductive freedoms will be pivotal among women in battleground states. A Wall Street Journal poll conducted in spring of 2024 states that 39% of suburban women in swing states say abortion is “a make-or-break issue” for them. Even more of these women (almost 75%) responded that “the procedure should be legal all or most of the time,” and a majority of those surveyed feel that “Trump’s policies [on abortion] are too restrictive.” As the example of Poland indicates, the influence of women voters should not be underestimated.
Perhaps more importantly, abortion rights are important to voters in key swing states, regardless of gender. A vast majority of voters in Arizona and Nevada (73% and 75%, respectively) support their state’s ballot measure to protect abortion rights. Further, 16% of polled Arizona voters and 13% of Nevada voters cited abortion as their top issue in determining which candidate they would choose in the upcoming presidential election. While this may seem inconsequential when considering the United States at large, these statistics should not be taken lightly. Regardless of which candidate achieves victory, they are expected to win by a close margin. As it was in Poland, the issue of abortion rights could very well be the deciding factor in the outcome of the election.
The future of democracy in both countries is uncertain. Poland may have succeeded in displacing the ruling party, but the opposition coalition still has a long road ahead of them in reversing damage to democratic institutions. It will be especially difficult to implement their desired reforms (such as liberalization of abortion policies) because the current president is a member of the PiS party, and biased loyalists remain on the courts. However, the motivating issue of reproductive rights has provided a way forward. In the United States, there is no way of knowing for certain which candidate will emerge victorious. The results will determine whether or not American democracy goes down a path of democratic decline, and reproductive rights are sure to have an effect on this outcome. In either case, the power of civil society to affect trends of democratic erosion creates room for hope.
0 Comments