On March 19, 2025, the top opposition candidate, Ekrem Imamoglu, was arrested four days prior to confirmation as the opposition party’s candidate for president. Turkey’s presidential elections are scheduled for 2028. Mr. Imamoglu, President Erdogan’s strongest rival and mayor of Istanbul (an opposition stronghold), was placed in a maximum security prison based on what are widely viewed as bogus charges – corruption and terrorism. Shortly after, Mr. Imamoglu’s political party, the Republican Peoples’ Party (CHP), held a primary and confirmed him as its next candidate for Turkey’s presidential elections. The primary was open to all voters and, according to the party, around 15 million Turks participated.
Ekrem Imamoglu’s arrest sparked Turkey’s biggest protests in over a decade. Tens of thousands (mostly young people) filled the square outside city hall in Istanbul – a cosmopolitan city on the Bosporus that was once the heart of the Ottoman Empire. Around 1,800 people, including journalists, were detained by police. Turkey’s security forces used tear gas, water cannons, and rubber bullets on protesters. “Our country will not give in to street terror,” said Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan. Donald Trump, the U.S. president, called Mr. Erdogan a “good leader.” While tens of thousands marched in the streets of Istanbul, one news channel showed traffic police handing out sweets to drivers. Another featured chefs preparing snacks for the Eid al-Fitr holiday.
Many may shrug at the latest news: Mr. Erdogan is quite cozy with strongmen such as Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, and Donald Trump. Fair enough. However, until recently, Turkey could be described as a competitive authoritarian state. The opposition had been able to win local elections and secure partial access to the legislature. Istanbul has held out as an opposition stronghold, providing some insulation from Ankara. Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party (AKP) rose to power in 2002 – when Turkey was a “tutelary democracy.” The military was jettisoned from politics, which temporarily pushed up liberal democracy and electoral democracy scores (see chart below) before gradually falling after 2004.

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Mr. Erdogan’s AKP utilized a phenomenon called stealth authoritarianism to chip away at Turkish democracy – deploying tools such as libel lawsuits against the opposition. Turkey’s president has also polarized the country. Scholars have noted that severe polarization is a cause of democratic erosion. Similar to the Democratic-Republican divide in the U.S., 34.2% of AKP voters and 60.4% of CHP voters declared they would “never vote” for the other party. Views are similar on inter-party marriage in Turkey. It was only in 2018 when Freedom House graded Turkey as “Not Free.” Currently, Freedom House ranks Turkey 33 out of 100.