Photo from Inquirer

2025: A Turn of Events

The year 2025 started with an unexpected turn of events: the House of Representatives impeached Vice President (VP) Sara Duterte. 

Sara Duterte has been in hot water since 2023 after the Commission on Audit (COA) flagged the Office for its anomalous spending of millions worth of confidential funds in 2022. Congressional hearings held in 2024 revealed more evidence of misuse of public funds, sparking discussions of these controversies serving as culpable grounds for impeachment.

The tipping point, however, was when Sara Duterte publicly threatened to assassinate President Bongbong Marcos Jr., his wife, and the House speaker in a media broadcast.

All eyes were on the House as civil society groups filed impeachment complaints at the end of 2024. Come 2025, three complaints had already been filed, but it was the fourth impeachment complaint that the House acted on and earned the endorsement of 215 out of 310 members at the Senate’s last session day before the midterm elections. The Senate is expected to commence impeachment proceedings on June 2 once session resumes and with newly elected members of Congress.

Many Filipinos celebrated the news of the impeachment as a success for Philippine democracy. These were paused, however, as the Senate president showed no signs of urgency to face the VP’s impeachment case and as the Duterte camp had immediate pushback to attempt to thwart the impeachment trial. 

With mixed public sentiments as early as now, one can imagine the extent of polarization in the coming months leading up to the impeachment trial. This, however, is only the tip of the iceberg. The recent arrest of former president Rodrigo Duterte at the International Criminal Court (ICC) for crimes against humanity, and the public spectacles of his children including the VP that followed suit just complicates the situation. If the current pushback against the ICC arrest is any indication, the Dutertes, backed by their loyal supporters, will not go down without a fight.

It is more crucial than ever to be critical of the contentious matters plaguing the impeachment of Sara Duterte. The impeachment trial should proceed with utmost awareness of public sentiments and the prospect of strong public pushback against the impeachment.

Congressional Checks on the Executive

In a country with weak democratic institutions, impeachment is seen as a mechanism of accountability for elected public officials who abuse their power. The impeachment of an executive is a test of democratic institutions, especially in the Philippines where the legislative branch, often packed with the president’s allies or acted in the president’s interest, is unlikely to constrain abuses of executive power. The celebratory reactions upon hearing about the House impeaching the VP are thus understandable coming from Filipinos who rarely get to see corrupt officials, especially one among the once-untouchable Dutertes brought to accountability.

As for the judiciary, this entire impeachment process will also put judicial independence to the test as both Duterte and opposition camps seek the intervention of courts. How the Supreme Court will posture itself is crucial to the trajectory of the impeachment process and for breaking any public perceptions viewing them as valuing loyalty to the President (who has the power to appoint judges), over independence.

Public Opinion Amid a Turbulent Political Landscape 

Although the impeachment of VP Duterte can be rightfully considered an indication of our still-functioning democratic institutions, many Filipinos may not share such sentiments, especially after witnessing a stream of controversies between opposing political camps in the past years. Hence, impeachment can also be a polarizing time for citizens as public sentiments become divided between demands for accountability, suspicions of politicization, and concerns about political instability. 

Trust ratings for the President and Vice President have been steadily declining among the public, and sometimes theatrical brawls that fully broke down the UniTeam alliance. It would be no surprise if Filipinos are wary that the ongoing impeachment of the VP would bring political instability that will aggravate existing day-to-day concerns with food security, employment, and social services.

The timing of the impeachment during the fast-approaching midterm elections makes it more difficult to gain public support. VP Duterte’s sibling in the House immediately accused the House of “political persecution” upon the endorsement of the impeachment. Many among the public air out similar accusations, accusing lawmakers of acting in self-interest for siding with the President, given the growing public dissatisfaction with the VP. Others say that the impeachment is a politically motivated attempt to block the possible presidential candidacy of the VP in 2028, which polls still name as the leading presidential bet, or that re-electionists are using it to bolster their election campaigns. 

Many are also concerned that the impeachment trial would be politicized, which is not a completely baseless concern since the strongest senatorial contenders for 2025, according to polls, are mostly from the Marcos-backed Alyansa alliance, and could sit as impeachment judges in June. Needless to say, the public will have to sift through a lot of turmoil to deliberate their opinion of the impeachment.

More months of turbulence and warring narratives

Public opinion becomes fragile in such turbulent times. Celebrations for Philippine democracy should be paused momentarily as the Filipino public remains divided over the impeachment. 

History itself can attest to the polarizing effect and extent of public pushback that comes with the impeachment of an elected executive with a strong support base. Remembering Joseph Estrada’s impeachment in 2000, while Filipinos’ show of force in “Edsa Dos” was framed as a moral victory, it was met with an often unacknowledged revolt called “Edsa Tres” attended by enraged Estrada supporters. It polarized the mostly middle-class advocates of the ouster who were considered defenders of democracy, and the urban poor supporters of Estrada who were dismissed as bobotante masses. 

The Duterte support base is not to be underestimated. Time will tell if they can mobilize another Edsa Tres, but the mobilizations in support of the VP last year, and more recently, the mobilizations in support of Rodrigo Duterte opposing his arrest held nationwide and overseas already resemble it. The ICC arrest is expected to deepen polarization. Congress, media, and opposition groups should be mindful of how they will frame issues relating to the impeachment trial. The mass media plays a more critical role in this quagmire as Sara Duterte plays the heroine in her father’s anticipated ICC trial to divert public attention as mis- and disinformation about the arrest and the VP’s impeachment spread like wildfire on social media.

With months to come before the Senate convenes for the impeachment trial, we can expect more political theatrics to unfold and try to win over public opinion. At this point, the media and civil society should closely monitor whether the legislative and judicial branches will play their parts in preparing a transparent and unpoliticized impeachment trial. 

Although divided opinions before the impeachment trial are expected, elected officials in Congress and civil society should actively engage and involve the public in the ongoing impeachment process and understand its implications for Philippine society. Support for the impeachment must not be imposed on the Filipino public as they try to reconcile their frustrations and hopes for the country.