“Só saio, preso, morto ou com vitória” Originally in Portuguese, Brazil’s presidential incumbent promises what will occur after the election. President Jair Bolsonaro told his supporters in a speech to expect one of three plausible endings after the vote—his imprisonment, his death, or him being victorious. This tag line helps prompt the greater worry that President Bolsonaro will not accept the election results if he loses. For months, the current president has criticized Brazil’s electronic voting system, claiming it’s easy to rig and calls for paper ballots to avoid what he’d call a fraudulent voting system. After heavily rallying up his supporters to not accept his loss, and being deemed Brazil’s “first social media president”, the comparisons to the U.S.’s own Donald J Trump are endless. Although there are various projections for what Bolsonaro can or can’t pull off after his projected election loss, it’s imperative to realize Bolsonaro’s potential coup may be a more serious threat than his U.S. counterpart’s January 6^th.

Jair Bolsonaro is a retired military officer who was first elected President in 2018. He is a far-right populist president, and has been the first president in a long time to want a close relationship with the U.S.. He was originally elected with the classic promise to shake up Brazilian politics for the better. Since being in office, Bolsonaro is widely known as a world leader who greatly downplayed the severity of the coronavirus pandemic. Brazil’s supreme court recently took the step to open a criminal investigation on the incumbent—partially on a suspiciously expensive deal for buying a vaccine. Some other Brazilian political figures assume there were other payments involved as Bolsonaro’s payment was 10 times the amount Bharat Biotech originally quoted for Covaxin.

This is only one example of Bolsonaro’s corruption. Former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva—referred to as Lula by his red-vested supporters in the Worker’s Party—was released after 580 days in prison. This was originally a 12-year sentence for money laundering, ruled by controversial judge Sergio Moro. This judge soon after was named the Minister of Justice for Bolsonaro’s administration. Many experts say Bolsonaro’s sweeping victory in 2018 was only due to former poll-leader Lula’s imprisonment.

2022 is the second time Lula has left Bolsonaro behind in the polls. Fears of Bolsonaro’s upcoming coup-attempt have grown strongly as while Lula pulls ahead, Bolsonaro furiously delegitimizes Brazil’s voting system, and turns national holidays into his own political rallies. The main colors of Brazil’s flag are yellow and green—these are the same colors one could see at Brazil’s Bicentennial celebration as tens of thousands of Bolsonaro’s supporters flooded the streets of Brasilia in green and yellow by Bolsonaro’s direction. It’s become evident that Bolsonaro has co-opted the sentiment of Brazilian Patriotism as direct support for his leadership. On top of this, the retired army captain ordered military parades at both Brasilia and his other ordered rally in Rio de Janeiro, both said to be shows of Brazil’s strength for 200 years. With Bolsonaro’s lengthy speech coinciding with these power theatrics, he effectively clarified Brazil’s independence was not the focus. From far and wide in both cities, one could hear Bolsonaro’s far-right supporters chanting against frontrunner Lula on a day typically reserved for Brazilian unity. Following the show, Bolsonaro held a rally where he made no mention of Brazil’s independence struggle. The President instead listed off his achievements while making disparaging comments against the rival Workers’ Party.

As the first round of elections neared, Bolsonaro’s unwavering claims of electronic voter fraud was answered. Researcher Marcos Simplicio at University of São Paulo, who specializes in cryptography and network security, took part in the 2014 election’s auditing, and publicly declared “There is no reasonable proof of fraud going on in the past…”. This directly responds to Bolsonaro’s direct claims that it’s impossible to audit the electronic system. Bolsonaro even called out the new head of Brazil’s superior electoral court: Alexandre de Moreas. Bolsonaro proclaimed to his supporters that they will not allow “people like Alexandre de Moreas” to flog their constitution and their democracy. This is part of a larger attitude in Bolsonaro’s base that the far-right Liberal Party is the true party protecting Brazil’s democratic process. Many military officials have even backed Bolsonaro’s claims that the voting system is easily susceptible to attack.

The increasing overtness of Bolsonaro’s direct cooperation with the armed forces warns of a soon direct violation of what the Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces categorizes as democracy-supporting civil-military relations. It is a common sentiment that democracies stay democracies when the military stays out of politics. Bolsonaro’s threatening actions became more notable when he expressed admiration of the former military dictatorship that ruled over Brazil from 1964 to 1985. According to many government officials, Bolsonaro lacks the institutional support required for a coup. However, no one is denying that Bolsonaro has succeeded in weathering the public’s trust in democratic institutions. Polls have shown over half of Brazil trusts the voting system “a little” or “not at all”.

The first round of votes on October 2^nd have been tallied, and Bolsonaro lost by a much smaller than projected margin, and it’s now certain he’ll go up against plurality winner Lula in a run-off later this month. With no third-party candidates anymore and an unexpected turnout for the far-right incumbent, everyone should expect politics in Latin America’s largest democracy to only intensify in the coming weeks. Though some experts don’t expect Bolsonaro’s coup to fully realize itself, there is disturbingly little promise that he won’t at least attempt one. The world’s fourth-largest democracy may soon witness a promissory coup coupled with executive aggrandizement. The future of Brazil’s democracy may now depend on the military’s aversion to intervention.