On January 26, 2025, Belarus once again went through the steps of a presidential election, but the outcome was never in doubt. According to The Guardian, Alexander Lukashenko collected 87.6% of the vote, an outcome that Western governments quickly criticized as dishonest. Anitta Hipper, a spokesperson for the European Commission, stated that the election has been “rejected as a sham” by western governments. Echoing this viewpoint, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock remarked, “The people of Belarus had no choice. It is a bitter day for all those who long for freedom & democracy.”[i]

Opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, who was driven into exile following the rigged 2020 election, publicly rejected the results. On her website, she and other democratic forces issued a unified statement criticizing the election, stating: “A so-called presidential election is scheduled for 2025 in Belarus. In reality, this will be a sham election, as the people have been deprived of any alternative.”[ii]

The 2025 election reaffirmed Lukashenko’s hold on power, demonstrating the persistence of what legal scholar Ozan Varol refers to as “stealth authoritarianism”—a system in which authoritarian leaders use legal mechanisms found in democratic regimes to cement their rule while maintaining an appearance of legitimacy.[iii] Ultimately, Lukashenko’s grip on power serves as a warning that elections lose importance when the outcome is predetermined from the beginning, leaving citizens with no say in their country’s future.

Background: Lukashenko’s Rise to Power

Alexander Lukashenko’s control on Belarus began in 1994, when he was elected president in what was “probably the most credible vote ever held in Belarus.”[iv] As a former director of a state farm, he ran as an anti-corruption populist and won 80% of the vote in a runoff against communist leader Vyacheslav Kebic. However, once in office, his control swiftly became authoritarian.

Lukashenko’s political agenda became clear as he “[restored] the old Soviet economic system,” “gradually [increased] political repression,” and strengthened “close political relations with Russia.” Over time, he dismantled democratic institutions, consolidating power through constitutional amendments, media control, and repression of opposition figures. Despite mass protests against rigged elections in 2006, 2010, and 2020, Lukashenko has repeatedly clung to power. The 2020 election led to widespread demonstrations across Belarus, with thousands of citizens demanding his resignation. However, Lukashenko’s response quickly ended the protests and kept him in power.

The 2025 election is merely another example of Lukashenko’s long-standing autocratic leadership, which is backed by repression and Russian support.

The Election: A Façade of Democracy

While Belarus technically organizes elections, there has long been a lack of competition. Lukashenko has refined the look of democracy, using elections to strengthen, not question, his control. In the 2025 presidential election, opposition candidates were restricted from running, independent observers were refused entry, and state-controlled media ensured that Lukashenko’s narrative dominated public conversation. According to the Guardian, “all leading opposition figures have been jailed or forced to flee abroad,” leaving voters with no real alternatives on the ballot.

According to Varol’s concept of stealth authoritarianism, modern autocrats use legal means to rig elections rather than cancel them. Instead of openly suppressing, they “cloak repressive practices under the mask of law, imbue them with the veneer of legitimacy.” In Belarus, Lukashenko likewise prohibited international observers, guaranteeing that the election was tightly controlled and as highlighted by Reuters, “there were no serious challengers.”[v]

By 2025, Lukashenko’s re-election was a staged event rather than a democratic one. With no serious opposition, the outcome was predetermined, leaving citizens with no true political choice.

International Reactions and Lukashenko’s Alliances

The 2025 election was quickly criticized by Western countries. The European Union, the United Kingdom, and Canada refused to acknowledge the results, claiming they were fraudulent. Reuters reported that the EU’s foreign policy chief stated that the EU would continue to impose “restrictive and targeted measures against the regime.”

Belarusian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, speaking from exile, rejected the results, claiming it was “a staged performance designed to keep Lukashenko in power, defined by widespread fraud and repression.” Her statement reflects a widespread attitude among opposition parties, which regard the 2025 vote as another example of government-backed fraud.

Despite the sanctions, Lukashenko continues to receive Russian support. Following the election, Vladimir Putin confirmed Moscow’s support, highlighting the two countries’ close political and economic relations. According to Reuters, Lukashenko has “made himself a useful ally to Russia” by gaining economic benefits including low-cost oil and credit. Belarus remains firmly in Moscow’s circle, thanks to Russian economic, military, and diplomatic backing, underscoring the limits of Western pressure in an increasingly split geopolitical scene.

What Comes Next?

The 2025 Belarusian election shows that Lukashenko’s reign is based on repression, not legitimacy. Rigged elections, media control, and political persecution have all been used to silence genuine opposition while retaining an appearance of democracy. Despite Western sanctions and criticism, his reliance on Russian assistance keeps him in power. It is unclear whether internal unrest or changing geopolitics will challenge his hold on power, but as long as elections are just performances, true democracy in Belarus will stay out of reach.

[i] The Guardian. “Belarus Presidential Election: Alexander Lukashenko on Course to Win.” January 26, 2025.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/jan/26/belarus-presidential-election-alexander-lukashenko-on-course-win.

[ii] Tsikhanouskaya, Sviatlana. “Outcomes of the 2025 ‘presidential election’ in Belarus.” Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya’s Official Website, February 04, 2025.
https://tsikhanouskaya.org/en/news/outcomes-of-the-2025-presidential-election-in-belarus.html.

[iii] Varol, Ozan. “Stealth Authoritarianism.” Iowa Law Review, vol. 100, no. 4, 2015, pp. 1673-1742.
https://lawreview.lclark.edu/.

[iv] Atlantic Council. “Europe’s Last Dictator: The Rise and (Possible) Fall of Alyaksandr Lukashenko.” By Anders Åslund, August 11, 2020.
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/belarusalert/europes-last-dictator-the-rise-and-possible-fall-of-alexander-lukashenko.

[v] Reuters. “Lukashenko Pockets Massive Win in Belarus Election Scorned by West.” January 27, 2025.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/lukashenko-pockets-massive-win-belarus-election-scorned-by-west-2025-01-27