For decades, Somalia has been notoriously tied to its clan system regarding its political landscape. While the clan systems do provide a sense of social cohesion and unity it has become a large source of division, corruption and conflict within politics. As Somalia has worked its way out of authoritarian rule from the late 90s, clan systems may soon be meeting their demise with the proposal of universal suffrage for the upcoming 2025 elections.​​ This raises the question, is Somalia in a position to transition to a more inclusive democracy, or will clan identity once again prevail?

 The majority of the Somali people are dispersed between​​ five patrilineal clans, the Dir, Isaaq, Darood, Hawiye, and Rahanweyn. Within these five major clans there are a multitude of sub clans and lineages which creates an extremely complex web of social and familial affiliation. Clan membership in Somalia is vital to protection and stability as they dictate social identity, political views, and resources availability. These clans have played a vital role in Somalia’s government as the longstanding customary law is that clan elders are the only people able to vote in Somalia and also mediate disputes and various issues between rival clans. In theory, these clans provide stability in the state especially in places which lack political institutions.

When the Siad Barre authoritarian regime collapsed in Somalia in 1991, Somalia was plagued with an absence of a central government. So the clans took over power. ​​ This clan based Transitional Federal Government implemented the​​ 4.5​​ system which gave equal political representation to each clan. All representation was given proportionality with minority clans receiving half of the representation of the major five clans. Although this does sound fair in theory, the 4.5 system marginalized the minority communities and institutionalized the evident clan divisions.​​ For example, this model may stabilize post-conflict societies at the beginning of the reconstruction process, but they may harden communal identities and resist reforms,​​ especially when elites are given veto power over change. This tension is reflected in Somalia's current political system where, in practice, inclusion on paper has resulted in long-term exclusion.​​ 

As of 2023, the Somali people have pushed for reform after recognizing the evident limitations of the clan system. Current president Hassan Sheikh Mouhamud has announced a plan to implement universal suffrage which will hopefully foster a more inclusive and democratic Somalia. This proposed constitutional amendment was approved by both chambers of Parliament in​​ March of 2024​​ which shows great growth amongst the Somali government. Although this push for reform seems like an obvious step in the 21st century. The transition has been nothing short of difficult. Puntland, a semi-autonomous region of Somalia has shown​​ extremely strong opposition​​ to this amendment. They argue that this amendment did not undergo enough consultation before being proposed, and will throw off the balance of power that was already in place. Ultimately, Puntland removed itself from the Somali federal system until a nationwide referendum was held to approve the amendment. This response from Puntland emphasizes how difficult it can be to reform a state with deeply ingrained political principles.​​ 

Although universal suffrage is not supposed to be in full effect until June of 2025, clans are still deeply entrenched in politics and social dynamics. The clan militias have been in ongoing conflict over land, resources and power. These frequent​​ disputes​​ have led to a significant amount of displacement and migration of Somali residents including more than 600 fatalities between January 2024- February 2025. Although there have been attempts to mitigate the clan militias and combine them into a traditional military, the change has been abysmal. These clan forces do not want to integrate which in turn poses a threat to the removal of clan voting systems. There is no telling what these clan militias could do once they do not ‘run’ the country anymore.​​ The attempts to incorporate militias into the national army have mostly failed. Somalia's example illustrates a more general problem that​​ ACAPS​​ recognizes in security governed by clans such as informal actors challenging civic institutions for legitimacy, creating a fragile demilitarization. Now, absent structural integration and militias threaten state sovereignty and electoral security.​​ 

Although there have been lots of issues regarding clan militias, and political governance it is not definite that universal suffrage will fail. Although the general public deeply wants to see change, and clans are actively fighting this change, government officials are approaching this with sensitivity and still trying to allow the clans to have some sort of power. It has been crucial for the government's efforts to ensure representation, addressing minority concerns and building trust among stakeholders. If the clans and minority groups cannot understand the importance of universal suffrage the entirety of Somalia’s government, security and economy could potentially fail. ​​ Other researchers argue that in transitioning democracies, political processes like elections may be less important than the distribution of sovereign power among the community and civil institutions. In fragile states, citizens tend to forgo the formal channel of the state when authority is assumed by clan leaders to resolve​​ disputes and allocate resources. Somalia's reform process therefore must address legitimacy in the institutions of community and civil representation.​​ 

In conclusion, Somalia is unfortunately stuck in the middle of the road. With great strides towards a functioning democracy but intense backlash from traditionalists it feels as if it is a one step forward two step back scenario. This journey is challenging, it will be difficult to influence the resistance into believing that democracy will enhance their country and not weaken it. The demise of the Somali clan system is not just about changing what has hypothetically worked in the past or making the state ‘woke’ and ‘progressive.’ It is about building a strong national identity, transforming lives, and helping minorities who do not necessarily fit in a specific clan. It has been a long journey, but come Somalia’s next election in June 2025 things seem to be looking up. This is an extremely historic time in Somalia. Only time will tell if good or evil will prevail.​​