Guatemala’s 2023 Presidential election sparked a democratic crisis in the country, as anti-corruption reformer Bernardo Arévalo’s rise to power and election brought political blowback from the incumbent power bloc. This threatened democratic norms and was only curtailed through widespread international pressure and citizen-led protests. Following an electoral period marred with systemic targeting of opposition parties by the previous Giammattei administration, Arévalo emerged as a surprise frontrunner in a subsequent runoff election. Addressing this potential threat to the kleptocratic Guatemalan power structure in place since the 1990s, the Public Ministry and the courts institutionally threatened the election and potential transition of power. Democracy in Guatemala was endangered and was precariously preserved through the concerted efforts of the opposition. Despite the continued threats posed to election integrity by Guatemala’s power base, there is an important lesson to be understood about how to counter those who erode what David Waldner and Ellen Lust describe as, “norms of answerability and punishment”.  The importance of the civil society in holding the government vertically accountable and the necessity of pressure from international actors and the public in upholding electoral results illustrate how Guatemala narrowly navigated the political crisis created by democratic erosion in the country.

Leadup to the Crisis

To understand the risk this crisis posed to Guatemalan politics, it is first necessary to understand the long leadup of governmental instability within the country. There was newfound promise of democracy after peace accords were signed in 1996 (ending 36 years of civil war). However, Guatemala’s electoral history has continued to be deeply fractured, strained by both election related violence and extrajudicial killings. The inability of the current regime to distance itself from the previous brutality of the Guatemalan military has spurred societal unrest in the country and damaged the political efficacy of the Government. Further, a deeply politicized judicial system and the fundamental repression of the Guatemalan population has curbed resistance to governmental actions. This allowed a system of clientelism and corruption to flourish, permitting the blatant misuse of governmental powers by President Alejandro Giammattei during his four-year term (2020-2024). Giammattei y escaped political accountability and enacted deeply unpopular redirections of government funding away from education and healthcare. Intimidation and harassment tactics against opposition parties and media became widespread, shown through the legislative erosion of LGBTQ+ rights and the brutal repression of feminist and worker demonstrations. Widespread protests to these decisions proved ineffective, and the government poised itself to tighten its grasp on power in the 2023 presidential election.

In 2021, Attorney General María Consuelo Porras began attacking anti-corruption forces through the imprisonment, exile, and investigation of key figures linked in the battle against the incumbents’ abuse of power. Opposition lawyers, judges, politicians, and journalists faced domination by political and economic elites, who employed the stealth authoritarian practice described by Ozan Varol of impairing party turnover under the guise of anti-corruption. Porras and other powerful figures associated with the Supreme Election Tribunal delegitimized and disqualified leading opposition candidates, setting the stage for further usurpation of the rule of law.

However, the economic and political elite in Guatemala grew overconfident in the chokehold they held over every branch of the government. They disregarded the smaller Semilla party’s candidate Bernardo Arévalo, who had been quietly running an effective anti-corruption campaign, and backed the manipulatable figurehead, Manuel Conde. Shockingly, the first round of election results revealed Arévalo and a third candidate, moderate Sandra Torres, had advanced to a runoff and Conde was off the ballot. The relatively large amount of null and blank votes cast demonstrated the distrust and dissatisfaction many Guatemalan’s felt with the electoral process in the country. Consequently, the establishment began to panic.

Incumbents’ Attacks on Arévalo

For the first time in years, there appeared to exist a possibility for the political will of the Guatemalan people to be heard. Fearing the momentum Arevalo appeared to be gaining, powerbrokers and elites began associating with the otherwise unfavorable Torres and trying to disqualify Arevalo and his Semilla party through unsubstantiated claims that Semilla’s creation was illegitimate. What followed was a back-and-forth legal battle between the country’s Constitutional Court and Public Ministry (a powerful legal arm of the government). The Court ultimately struck down the PM’s claim that Semilla’s legal status should be revoked, appearing to prepare for the run-off to proceed.

Unfortunately, the risk of democratic crisis was then exacerbated by further attempts by the Public Ministry, led by Attorney General Poras, to upend the coming election. This was seen through empty claims of election fraud, the seizure and arrest of electoral officials, and the raiding of Semilla’s headquarters in a blatant attempt to stamp out opposition. Simultaneously, Torres’ adoption of right-wing talking points and growing closeness to the incumbent presidency solidified the run-off as a referendum on the ability of the Guatemalan people to achieve political accountability. Manin, Przeworski, and Stokes highlight this ability to identify the parties in government responsible for poor performance and remove them from office as an essential indicator of a strong, functioning democracy. Guatemalan democracy held out as the PM continued to press the courts to rule on Semilla’s legality. Following a permanent injunction maintaining Semilla’s legitimacy, the run-off election proceeded on August 21, 2023, and the will of the people was definitively heard – Arévalo and the power of the people won in a landslide. Against all odds, the inability of the government to fully realize the dissatisfaction of the electorate vindicated the resilience of democratic processes. Having tried and failed to stop Arévalo’s election, the PM and Giammattei’s administration continued abusing institutional frameworks intended to provide checks and balances, threatening to upset the progress that had been made.

Tempering of Crisis and Outlook on Guatemalan Democracy

In the months following the election victory, the legislature, still dominated by pro-elite candidates, managed to get Semilla’s party registration temporarily suspended. This measure forced Semilla candidates to sit as independents unable to chair committees. Combined with more raids on Semilla headquarters, Arévalo’s prospects for effective leadership were deeply threatened. In response, international pressure came from the U.S., EU, and UN in the form of heightened economic sanctions and visa restrictions on Guatemalan elites, putting the Guatemalan government in the spotlight for undermining the rule of law. International watchdog organizations publicly rebuked the government’s actions and raised awareness to potential violations of political fairness. Concurrent protests held by indigenous and labor leaders, culminating in a general strike, brought the conflict between ruling coalition and the people further in the spotlight. In response to courts continuing to argue for Semilla’s suspension, these continued until the January inauguration. The dual threat posed by internal and international resistance to incumbent attempts at democratic erosion was pivotal in slowing Poras’ attempts to prosecute Semilla and its leaders. A final attempt at blocking Arévalo’s inauguration was struck down by the constitutional courts and, despite smaller temporary squabbles, there was a legal transition of power to President Arévalo on January 15, 2024.

Despite this victory for democracy in Guatemala, significant issues still persist for the Arévalo administration. Violence and cost of living, pivotal campaign issues, remain quite high, and the still establishment-friendly Congress’ efforts to block legislation have subdued meaningful change. Additionally, the PM successfully had Semilla deregistered as a political party following the inauguration, hampering the legitimacy of Arévalo and his allies. While it may be argued these issues invalidate the progress made, the peaceful, yet difficult transition of power for the Presidency is deeply important. It illustrates a larger message regarding the potential for widespread institutional democratic erosion to threaten political stability and the necessity of civil and international society to provide resistance. As the PM continues to prosecute Semilla party members and the next Presidential election looms, one must consider if collective action will again be sufficient to stop the corruption of the establishment.