Oct 10, 2024

Sheinbaum’s Folly: How a Weak State Undermines Mexico’s Democracy

Written By: Julian Coss y Leon Cronin

Draped in the green, white and red of the Presidential Sash, Claudia Sheinbaum, 62, delivered her inaugural speech as Mexico’s 66th President. 

“We are a free, democratic, sovereign, and independent country…with a marvelous people,” Sheinbaum assured a large and festive crowd in Mexico City’s central square last week. An award winning scientist and former Mexico City Executive, Sheinbaum emphasized that she would continue the political project of her predecessor, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador. Assuming the reins of power as Mexico’s first female president, Sheinbaum beamed and waved as she dedicated much of her speech to praising the outgoing President. “[Lopez Obrador] is the best President in Mexico’s history” she declared as she raised her hand. “It is an honour to stand with Obrador!”

Sheinbaum’s fawning declarations of allegiance to Lopez Obrador and his “fourth transformation” political program come as no surprise to a Mexican electorate who approves of the outgoing President by a whopping 70%, and who in June elected his MORENA Party to large majorities in Congress. After six years in power and decades in the national spotlight, Lopez Obrador, 70, has promised to pass the torch to a new generation of leaders and retire to his private ranch. His legacy, one of national regeneration and poverty reduction to supporters, and of anti-democratic dangerous demagoguery and incompetence to detractors, will continue to be hotly debated both inside and outside of Mexico.

Yet after a quarter-century of democratic governance, Mexico’s democracy remains fragile, with endemic violence, inequality, and corruption burdening true democratic consolidation. Indeed, neither Lopez Obrador, Sheinbaum, MORENA, nor the myriad of opposition parties and candidates present the most existential threat to democracy. Instead, the greatest threat to Mexican democracy is its chronic inability to govern and the weakness of the state itself.

Inheriting a deeply undemocratic society and colonial legacy, Mexico’s leaders have throughout history fought bitter political conflicts to define the terms of political life. In its first century of independence, Mexico endured numerous civil wars and foreign invasions, coups and counter-coups, and a deep struggle between liberal and conservative forces. Following the Mexican Revolution of the 1910s, the bulk of the twentieth-century saw Mexico under a quasi-dictatorship under the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which ruled from the 1920s to the 1990s.

As the PRI party-state disintegrated in the 1990s, Mexico’s democratic transition introduced novel opportunities for lasting political change. Unfortunately, as Mexico’s democracy approaches its three-decade mark, many Mexicans express disillusionment and a lack of confidence in its fundamental institutions. Though in 2023, 70% of Mexicans expressed confidence in the President, only around half expressed confidence in Mexico’s Supreme Court, Congress, and Municipal Governments. Trust in electoral and judicial institutions lagged even farther behind, with a minority of Mexicans expressing confidence in the judicial system (42%), the protection of basic rights (43%), fair trials (36%), the media (39%), and political parties (26%).

Mexico’s democratic era, which has seen genuine multi-party competition and transitions of power, has failed to address the rampant criminal violence, economic inequality, and endemic corruption that threaten the country’s social cohesion and democratic stability. Though the Nobel Prize winning author Octavio Paz once quipped that “the Mexican’s indifference to death is fueled by his indifference to life,” Mexican voters by a wide margin continue to list rampant criminal violence as the most troubling issue facing the country. Reeling from over 100,000 murders in the last three years alone, Mexico’s security apparatus appears incapable of taking on the powerful drug cartels and criminal organizations which dominate large swathes of the country. As Mexico’s criminals wage war for territory and influence, political candidates for MORENA and opposition parties alike have been murdered on the campaign trail, threatening the basic electoral functioning of democracy.

Poverty and economic inequality, too, remain pressing issues. While Lopez Obrador’s expansion of social programs has reduced poverty and raised real wages for the lowest income earners, Mexico’s growth rate has been sluggish and extreme poverty remains a persistent issue. And although Lopez Obrador promised to combat corruption, Transparency International’s 2023 Corruption Perceptions Index indicated widespread corruption, with Mexico ranked a low 126 out of 180 countries for corruption, with 1 indicating the world’s least corrupt country.

Though aspiring autocrats may point the blame at Mexico’s democracy, many of Mexico’s social problems are decades, if not centuries in the making. Under the PRI dictatorship, criminality, inequality, and corruption were not only present, they were institutionalized to the highest level. Mexican democracy itself is not to blame for Mexico’s ills, nor should that country seek a return to authoritarian rule. Instead, the chronic weakness of Mexico’s state is at fault. The Mexican state is unable to effectively govern the country, secure citizens basic rights, or guarantee public safety, undermining the functioning of democracy.

State capacity, the government’s “bureaucratic, fiscal and military capacities [to] provide public goods and legal environments conducive to economic development and political stability” is an essential component of democratic governance. Concerningly, Mexico appears unable to raise enough revenue through taxes or spend enough to ensure social security. Mexico has the lowest tax-to-GDP ratio among all OECD countries, meaning that its government simply does not have the revenue that it needs to fund essential government services. For Mexico’s government to accomplish the basic tasks of governance, it will have to reform its tax structure, something Lopez Obrador has proved unwilling to do. Accordingly, Mexico’s social spending is also the lowest in the OECD, fueling the country’s deep social issues. As Steven Levitsky and others have demonstrated, low state capacity and institutional weakness have the potential to undermine democracy itself. Even if Mexico’s leaders are genuine in their desire to promote democracy, the state appears too weak to do so. 

The fate of El Salvador’s democracy provides a cautionary tale. El Salvador’s inability to address chronic social crises facilitated the rise of a new authoritarianism in President Nayib Bukele, as voters traded political rights for public safety. As the political scientist Jan-Werner Müller has demonstrated, populist authoritarians can exploit crises to undermine democratic norms. Mexicans should not believe their democracy impervious to such threats. Mexico must reform its state and build capacity, so that it can address its myriad of social challenges and preserve its democracy.

After six years in office, Lopez Obrador’s legacy is complex. In some ways, he has been successful in delivering greater social equality and opportunities for the lowest in society. At the same time, Lopez Obrador has failed to enhance state capacity or bring about an end to Mexico’s persistent violence and public corruption. As has been widely reported in the global media, Lopez Obrador’s reforms and rhetoric have raised questions about his commitment to democratic governance. Sheinbaum, while steadfast in her commitment to Lopez Obrador’s socioeconomic agenda, also has a unique opportunity to address Mexico’s state weakness and consolidate its young democracy.

While Mexican elites living in the capital’s cosmopolitan Polanco District, working in Washington D.C.’s prestigious think tank circle, or earning degrees abroad in Madrid, London, or Boston may decry Lopez Obrador, Sheinbaum, and their populist MORENA party as existential threats to Mexican democracy, they risk missing the forest for the trees. Regardless of the party in charge, Mexico’s chronic tragedies will continue to plague its institutions. Unless Mexico is able to build up its state capacity, it will remain unable to consolidate its democracy. 

Mexico’s legendary statesman Benito Juarez once declared that “democracy is the destiny of humanity.” Whether Juarez’s nation will or will not realise its democratic destiny remains an open question gnawing away at the basic foundations of Mexican society.

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